Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday, August 29)

Cubs vs. Reds Odds

Odds updated as of Saturday at 2:10 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

We have a heavyweight pitching matchup in the NL Central on Satruday afternoon and Yu Darvish and the Cubs take on Trevor Bauer and the Reds. This is without a doubt the best game on the slate for Saturday, so lets breakdown the matchup.

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Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Cubs Projected Lineup

The Cubs have been above-average offensively, ranking 11th in MLB with a .323 wOBA and 102 wRC+. They've done most of their damage against right-handed pitching: Chicago reports a .335 wOBA versus righties compared to only a .298 wOBA against left-handed pitching.

Anthony Rizzo and Ian Happ have been carrying Chicago offensively; the duo has combined for 11 home runs and 27 RBIs this season. The Cubs have been successful versus fastballs and cutters this year — which are Bauer's two primary pitches.

Cubs Probable Starter

Yu Darvish, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

I'm really happy that Darvish is finally getting the recognition that he deserves, because he has some of the best stuff in the game. Darvish has a ton of different pitches, but he mainly uses his cutter, which has been really effective this season. His cutter has allowed a .230 batting average and has produced a 36.8% whiff rate in 2020.

Darvish's cutter has been excellent, but he's really been excelling with his fastball and slider. He's allowed only five hits on 164 fastballs or sliders and is producing over a 40% whiff rate on those two pitches. Darvish put on a show with his slider in his last outing, as it was literally untouchable.

The Reds have struggled mightily against both cutters and sliders, so Darvish has a fantastic matchup on Saturday.

Reds Projected Lineup

Cincinnati has been average offensively so far, ranking 19th in MLB in terms of wOBA (.316) and wRC+ (94). Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos have carried the Reds offense, combining for 18 home runs and 37 RBIs. Winker and Castellanos and are the only two players in Reds lineup with a wOBA over .350.

Cincinnati has primarily been feasting on fastballs and sinkers, so look for Darvish to go to his cutter and slider often on Saturday.

Reds Probable Starter

Trevor Bauer, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsneal (via Baseball Savant)

Trevor Bauer has been successful this season, because he's been on-point with his three main pitches: fastball, cutter and slider. Opposing hitters have managed a measly .088 against those three pitches. However, Bauer has struggled somewhat with his curveball: Seven of the 15 hits he's allowed so far have come off of that pitch.

The Cubs have been really successful against fastballs and cutters this season. In fact, they've been the best team in MLB against cutters, with 5.3 weighted cutter runs. So, expect Bauer to go to his slider and curveball more often than usual on Saturday.

Bullpens

Neither bullpen has been great this season. Each pen reports an ERA over 5.00, which ranks near the bottom of MLB. With both bullpens getting the day off on Thursday, everyone should be available on Saturday.

Projections and Pick

Odds for this game posted around 10:00 a.m. ET on Saturday morning. Prior to lines being released, I was looking to jump on the Cubs at +117 or better; and conversely, I would bet on the Reds at +106 or better.

Unfortunately, Chicago opened at -106 and Cincinnati opened at -110 at DraftKings, neither of which offers much value. Nonetheless, bettors in Illinois could take advantage of DraftKings' promotion below and bet the Cubs at +104.

For now, I'll hold off, but you can follow me on The Action Network App to see if I end up making a play on the moneyline or total later this afternoon.

[Bet the Chicago Cubs at +104 with a 10% profit boost at DraftKings (now online in Illinois!)]