The San Diego Padres host the Miami Marlins on May 27, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Read our Marlins vs Padres prediction and MLB pick below.
My Marlins vs Padres Prediction
- Marlins vs Padres Picks: Padres ML (-160, BetMGM)
My Marlins vs Padres best bet is on San Diego ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Padres Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | +135 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7.5 -118o / -102u | -160 |
Marlins vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Max Meyer (MIA) | Stat | RHP Stephen Kolek (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 2-1 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 4.15 / 4.29 | ERA / xERA | 2.84 /3.32 |
| 3.92 / 3.01 | FIP / xFIP | 4.02 / 3.60 |
| 1.28 | WHIP | 1.26 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 51.0% | GB% | 54.1% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 108 | Location+ | 98 |
Tanner McGrath’s Marlins vs Padres Preview
Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer looked like a stud in Spring Training and through April, capping off an excellent start to 2025 with a dominant, six-inning, zero-run, 14-strikeout performance against the Reds on April 21.
Things have taken a turn for the worse since then.
His fastball velocity has been shaky, and he’s lost much of the ride on the pitch. His secondary offerings (slider, sweeper, changeup) also haven't been as scary, both in terms of stuff and effectiveness.
Meyer posted a 2.10 ERA and 2.09 xFIP in his first five starts. He’s posted a 6.49 ERA and 4.06 xFIP in the five since. He also has very questionable batted-ball metrics (47% hard-hit rate allowed, 14th percentile; 92 MPH average exit velocity allowed, fourth percentile).
I’m worried about him against a Padres lineup that is typically excellent against right-handed pitching. That said, San Diego has been slumping at the plate for a while, posting a 75 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks (second-worst among MLB lineups during the stretch).
Padres starting pitcher Stephen Kolek is a young righty with underwhelming stuff but an uncanny ability to squeeze the most out of his lackluster arsenal. He has a plus sinker and a plus slider, locates pretty well, and forces a metric-ton of ground balls (55% in his career). The Pads need innings, and Kolek looks like a reliable inning-stuffer.
Behind breakout outfielder Kyle Stowers, the Marlins have heated up at the plate, posting a 116 wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past fortnight (ninth among MLB lineups during the stretch).
Although these lineups are trending in opposite directions, I still project the Padres as the much better offense against right-handed pitching. I’m attributing these recent streaks to a small sample size, and I’d like to buy the Padre bats at a low price while selling the Marlin bats at a high price.
The primary difference between these two squads lies in the bullpen, where San Diego boasts a top-five relief unit, while Miami has a bottom-five group.
The Padres’ bullpen is stretched, with Jason Adam, Adrian Morejon, and Robert Suarez having been deployed in back-to-back days.
Still, San Diego has depth, and I wouldn't touch Miami's bullpen with a 10-foot-long pole.
Regardless of the on-the-field factors, our Action PRO Model projects the Padres as -194 moneyline favorites on Tuesday, providing plenty of value with the home team at the -160 price.
I’ll sell Meyer and the Fish and buy Kolek and the Friars.
Pick: Padres ML (-160, BetMGM)
