I'm back after Memorial Day weekend when I published a few picks in the app.
I have just two MLB NRFI picks on Tuesday, May 27, as the sides I like were too heavily juiced in most of the games on the board.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Cardinals vs Orioles and Athletics vs Astros on Tuesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 27, 2025
Cardinals vs Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante vs. Tomoyuki Sugano
Both starting pitchers in this game have ERA predictors well higher than their actual ERAs, suggesting some regression is imminent. That partially explains the nine-run total for this contest.
In addition, both teams are on the better side of their platoon splits while featuring somewhat top-heavy lineups.
While neither pitcher is especially bad early in games, Sugano's highest ERA split is his first time through the order, which also helps the Cardinals' chances.
We also have extremely hitter-friendly weather in Baltimore that boosts scoring by 7.5% and home runs more than 20%.
That's enough for the YRFI at low juice via BetMGM — BetRivers also has a playable number.
Athletics vs. Astros NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: JP Sears vs. Hunter Brown
In this contest, we've got two of my favorite NRFI pitchers on the mound.
Brown is an obvious one, thanks to his 2.07 overall ERA. He's been elite in every part of the game and should have the edge even over a strong A's offense.
On the other side, Sears has a pedestrian 4.00 overall ERA that drops to 2.31 his first time through the order. His xFIP is also lowest early in games, gradually increasing each time he faces an opposing hitter.
With Houston hitting lefties at a below-average rate, it's not hard to see Sears getting through a clean few innings to start.
Plus, this game is in Houston instead of Sacramento, with its average Park Factor drastically boosting scoring, making it a more comfortable option.
