Locky’s Dodgers-Phillies Preview: Why I’m Betting Aaron Nola at Rare Short Price


Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Nola

Betting odds: Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies

  • Dodgers: -112 (Kenta Maeda)
  • Phillies: +102 (Aaron Nola)
  • Total: 7.5
  • First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Monday night’s game must have really stung for Phillies fans. Granted, I didn’t see many of them in the stands in the late innings, but still, for those who were invested, it was a rough way to lose. The bullpen gave up one in the seventh, two in the ninth, and the team lost what became a coin-flip late-inning game. The Phils are now back to being essentially tied with Atlanta in the NL East.

Despite what had to be a frustrating loss, I was a little surprised when I ran the numbers and then saw the moneyline and derivatives for Tuesday night’s game. I think any time you have an opportunity to get Nola at home as a small dog, or even-money, in this type of situation, it merits serious consideration.

The home-road splits for each starting pitcher are a bit eye-opening. Generally, I disregard that stuff in very tiny samples, even half seasons. But Nola and Maeda have spent their careers being much better at home (about a 0.80 ERA difference for Nola, and more than a run for Maeda). Getting those splits in tandem facing each other, combined with the current odds, is intriguing.

Nola handled this Dodgers lineup (minus Manny Machado of course) in LA earlier this season, picking up a win, so although there is an obvious talent disparity between the two offenses, I don’t think it’s enough to create the current price.

>> Follow Ken Barkley in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

What would concern me about taking the Phillies for the game is the state of each bullpen. They were both heavily used Monday night, but Philadelphia doesn’t have many options I trust. Seranthony Dominguez and Austin Davis might not be available after pitching in back-to-back games, and they’re two of the more reliable arms the Phillies have in a group of mostly unreliable guys.

I’ll settle for the Phillies First 5 Innings moneyline and take Nola in a spot where he’s getting less credit at home than I think he should. That way we won’t have to worry about a stressful, messy finish.

The Bet: Phillies F5 ML (+100)

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