MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/23: Count on Sonny Gray to Stay Hot vs. Braves?

Apr 23, 2019 05:40 PM EDT
Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sonny Gray

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 23 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Red Sox-Tigers matchup.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Anyone who played baseball or softball (or even kickball) when they were younger knows the feeling of standing in an unfamiliar position for the first time.

Typically, the following sequence occurs: (1) You think to yourself, “please don’t hit the ball at me; I don’t know what to do with my hands,” and (2) The ball is immediately coming towards you.

Last night, Angels outfielder Peter Bourjos made his first career appearance in the infield, and, naturally, the second ball in play made its way towards him. Bourjos proved that he is, in fact, a professional athlete:

The Angels lost in 14 innings when Yankees pitcher Jonathan Holder struck out Angels pitcher Trevor Cahill, who was pinch-hitting for another pitcher, Luke Bard, after Bourjos pinch-ran and scored the game-tying run for the designated hitter. Once Bourjos entered the game defensively, the Angels lost the DH spot.

Extra-inning baseball sure gets wild once teams start running out of players.


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 1-0 against full-game moneylines and 1-0 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday.

My actual picks went 1-1, but I was down only 0.05 units for the day.

It was a neutral day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

The Mets moneyline moved in a positive direction, before reverting to the opening number (-108) after Robinson Cano and Amed Rosario weren’t included in the Mets lineup. The total in the Oakland-Texas matchup never moved off 8.5 runs.


On Deck for Tuesday, April 23

All odds as of Tuesday morning (view live odds).

Based on opening lines, the model recommends two full-game moneylines for Tuesday. 

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