MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/17: Can Arizona Steal Another Game in Atlanta?
Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Zack Godley
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 17 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Diamondbacks-Braves and Angels-Rangers matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Yasiel Puig auditioning for John Wick? Check
Javier Baez auditioning for Harry Potter? Check
Collin McHugh auditioning for The Matrix?
It’s only the 17th of April, barely three weeks into the baseball season, and we’ve already had a wealth of tremendous baseball GIFs and photographs.
The 2019 season has not been lacking from an entertainment standpoint in the least. Particularly if you are a fan of Christian Yelich or the Brewers.
After three home runs on Monday, Yelich homered against the Cardinals again on Tuesday:
Christian Yelich is the Cardinals daddy pic.twitter.com/xUPVAQyKiO
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) April 17, 2019
Eight of Yelich’s nine home runs this season have come against St. Louis, and he has hit at least one against them for six straight games.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 2-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Monday. It also went 1-0 against totals, suggesting a significant edge on F5 over 3.5 in the Pirates-Tigers game.
My actual picks went 5-2, and I was up 2.73 U for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
On moneylines, I beat the closing line by 16 cents with Cleveland, five cents with the Diamondbacks, and three cents with the Athletics. However, I lost three cents each on the Yankees game and F5 moneylines.
I also gained four cents on the Pittsburgh-Detroit total but gave back 10 cents on the Cleveland-Seattle total.
On Deck for Wednesday, April 17
All odds as of Wednesday morning
The model recommends two full-game moneylines, and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday. It also likes one total.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks and Marlins as the full-game moneyline plays. It also likes the Marlins and Royals as F5 plays.
I again crossed off the Marlins immediately. Today’s starter, Sandy Alcantara, can be as electric as he is enigmatic. He has already flashed his range of potential outcomes over the course of three starts this season:
- vs. COL (3/31) 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 6 K
- @ ATL (4/6) 4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 0 K
- vs. PHI (4/12) 5.2 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 6 K
The Marlins have also scored the second-fewest runs in baseball, 48, and have averaged the fewest runs scored. per game (2.66), narrowly edging out the Tigers (2.69).
One team that I played despite my own advice is the Royals on the F5 line. I mentioned on Tuesday that the Royals are on my “do not bet” list, but that really applies to when those bad teams play against competitive teams (i.e. Marlins vs. Cubs) — not when two teams each projected to win about 70 games square off.
I’ve made no secret about my love for Royals starter Brad Keller, with his 25-year-old “dad bod” and mid to upper-90’s fastballs. The still-developing righty already generates weak contact on the ground with his slider and heavy sinker, and he struck out a career-high 10 batters in his last start against Cleveland:
Brad Keller, Filthy 86mph Slider…and Sword. 😨🤺⚔️ pic.twitter.com/ViBuUvdV19
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 13, 2019
Keller has faced the White Sox once already this season, and he dominated: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. He has turned in four straight quality starts and appears to be a safe F5 play so that you can avoid the Royals atrocious bullpen. The Royals also lead the AL Central in scoring, at 4.65 runs per game.
Arizona is an automatic play for me getting big plus money at Atlanta. The Diamondbacks had reduced expectations after their offseason moves, including the Paul Goldschmidt trade, but I bet the Over on their season win total projecting that they still had enough talent to play around .500 baseball.
So far, they’re 8-9 with a -4 run differential, but they’ve scored 5.7 runs per game. Arizona held a 2-0 lead over Atlanta on Tuesday, before falling behind 5-2, and eventually storming back to win the game 9-6:
First baseman and Goldschmidt replacement Christian Walker has been a revelation, with four doubles and 5 home runs through 51 at-bats, good for a .294 batting average and 1.035 OPS.
Lastly, the model liked Under 11 in the Angels-Rangers matchup. Matt Harvey is no longer what he once was, but his complete demise is also probably overblown. His opponent, Lance Lynn, also continues to be underrated.
I only project for 9.3 runs scored in that game and the total has dropped from 11 to 10.5. There is still slight value in Under 10.5, but you are no longer saved by a push on 11.
Bets (So Far) for April 17
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Arizona (+147) Game Moneyline
- Kansas City Royals (-110) F5 Moneyline
- Under 11, LA Angels at Texas
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/17: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.