MLB Expert Predictions for Thursday: Our Staff’s Picks for Mariners-Rangers, Padres-Giants
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) reacts during the second inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium.
- Our experts give out their favorite bets for Thursday night's MLB slate, including Mariners-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET), Padres-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET).
John Ewing: Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Felix Hernandez (1-4, 6.09 ERA) vs. Lance Lynn (14-9, 3.85 ERA)
- Mariners Moneyline: +150
- Rangers Moneyline: -170
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
Felix Hernandez will make his second start for the Mariners since returning from a right shoulder injury.
“King Felix” hasn’t been the same pitcher that won the Cy Young in 2010 the last few years failing to top 200 strikeouts in each of the past four seasons.
But there is a chance he looks like his vintage self tonight.
The Rangers strikeout a lot. Texas leads the majors in whiffs with 1,333 this season.
Rougned Odor, Shin-Soo Choo and Danny Santana have all swung and missed more than 120 times this season.
Hernandez’s strikeout prop for tonight is 4.5 Ks. The FantasyLabs prop tool projects Hernandez to have 4.7 Ks. A 0.2 difference in projected strikeouts and odds isn’t much but at +130 odds, there is value betting the over.
The PICK: Hernandez Over 4.5 Ks
Zerillo: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants
Chris Paddack (7-7, 3.84 ERA) vs. Dereck Rodriguez (5-6, 5.26 ERA)
- Padres Moneyline: -122
- Giants Moneyline: +112
- Over/Under: 8
- First pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
Since the starting pitching matchup largely drives my projections, let’s compare the two righties who will take the bump in this divisional game:
I had San Diego projected as a -144 favorite on Thursday, and saw value in both the first five innings and full game moneylines.
Both offenses have struggled of late. The Giants rank 19th with a 90 wRC+ since August 1, while the Padres rank 29th with a 68 wRC+ this month.
Rodriguez owns a 49:28 strikeout to walk ratio in 75 innings pitched this season — the fourth-worst strikeout minus walk rate amongst pitchers with at least 70 innings.
The Padres offense has struggled without Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup, but I’ll back the significantly better pitcher in both halves.
The PICK: Padres Moneyline