MLB Expert Predictions: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Saturday Including Orioles-Red Sox
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Asher Wojciechowski (29).
- Our experts give out their favorite plays for two games on Saturday's MLB slate: Orioles-Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET), and Padres-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
Sean Zerillo: Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
Asher Wojciechowski (2-5, 4.84 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (13-5, 4.31 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: 260
- Home Moneyline: -320
- Over/Under: 10.5
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Coming off of 9-1 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox on Friday night, there is no question that the Orioles will be in a contrarian spot again on Saturday — as they have been for most of the 2019 season.
A 12-12 July was easily Baltimore’s best stretch this season, but they are just 3-12 in August and have already been outscored by 70 runs; allowing 8.8 runs per game this month.
One of those three wins came as a +406 underdog against Justin Verlander and the Astros on August 11 — with Asher Wojiechowski (“Woj”) pitching for the Orioles.
It was the biggest moneyline upset in baseball dating back to 2005:
Orioles walk-off to beat the Astros!
Biggest MLB moneyline upsets since 2005:
+406: Orioles (Today vs. Astros)
+395: Nationals (2007 at Twins)
+360: Royals (2018 at Yankees)
+351: Tigers (2018 at Astros) pic.twitter.com/uFkOs6ZYCw
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 11, 2019
Woj will have the ball again on Saturday night, and he will look to beat the Red Sox for the second time this season. His first outing against them, on July 21, put Woj on the national radar after he allowed one hit while recording 10 strikeouts in 7.1 shutout innings against Boston.
There is no question that he is the Orioles’ most effective starting pitcher at present, yet Woj is still being priced like the rest of his teammates.
I think that thats a mistake.
Based upon implied odds, bookmakers give the Orioles a 27.7% chance of winning Saturdays game. I show their fair odds at 35.6%,
As with the Astros matchup, the odds of the Orioles actually winning this game are exceedingly unlikely. But I’m more than happy to buy an 8% difference between my projected odds, and the odds offered by sportsbooks.
The PICK: Baltimore Orioles (+260) Game Moneyline
John Ewing: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Dinelson Lamet (1-2, 3.86 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (7-11, 4.49 ERA)
- Away Moneyline: +101
- Home Moneyline: -109
- Over/Under: 9.5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
San Diego starter Dinelson Lamet returned from Tommy John surgery on July 4, he has struck out 49 batters in 35 innings over seven starts including 19 batters in his past two outings. Lamet is projected to ring up 10.3 Phillies in Saturday’s game — the highest projected total according to the Fantasy Labs prop tool.
Lamet’s strikeout prop for today is 6.5 Ks. The 3.7 Ks difference between projected strikeouts and the betting line is the largest on today’s slate earning this prop a bet quality rating of 10 out of 10.
This is the 21st game in the 2019 season that we have projected a pitcher to have 10 or more strikeouts and go over their strikeout total. In the previous 20 games the over went 15-5.
Run, don’t walk to the ticket window to place this bet!
The PICK: Lamet Over 6.5 Ks