MLB Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions for Wednesday: 2 Best Bets, Including Athletics vs. Astros & Yankees vs. Mariners (July 7)
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: The Yankees celebrate Tuesday’s win.
- Our MLB analysts have their eyes on a pair of games on Wednesday.
- The Athletics take on the Astros in Houston and the Yankees meet the Mariners in Seattle.
- Here are our staff's two best bets from Wednesday's MLB slate.
There's a pair of doubleheaders and games spread out throughout the day, making it another busy Wednesday in Major League Baseball, and that means there's plenty of action to be found.
Our analysts are targeting a pair of games on which they've found value, starting with the Athletics taking on the Astros in Houston, followed by the Yankees-Mariners meeting in Seattle.
Here are our staff's two best bets from Wednesday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Athletics vs. Astros
Brad Cunningham: Sean Manaea has been one of the Athletics' best pitchers this season, posting an xERA and xFIP below four, but this is a really bad matchup for him. The Astros are the No. 1 team in the league against left-handed pitching, as they’re hitting .287, have a wOBA of .347 and also have the most hits and runs scored against lefties.
Manaea is mainly a sinker-ball pitcher as he goes to it 60% of the time, and the Astros have five guys in their lineup with a wOBA over .370 and have hit 20 home runs as a team against sinkers.
Luis Garcia is a negative regression guy, because his ERA is at 3.14, but his xFIP is all the way up at 4.11. He goes to his fastball almost 50% of the time, but he’s not very effective with it because it's allowing a wOBA of .378. Oakland hits fastballs well, as the A's rank 13th in MLB and they also hit right-handed pitching well, as they’re 12th in wOBA and 10th in wRC+.
On top of all of that, these two bullpens have not been great over the first half of the season. Both are in the bottom 10 in terms of xFIP and Oakland actually has the lowest K/9 rate of any in baseball.
I have 9.46 runs projected for this game, so I’m going to go with another Over of 8.5 runs at -115 and would play anything up -120.
Yankees vs. Mariners
Kenny Ducey: The Yankees’ struggles against left-handed pitching over the last two years have been well-documented, but there’s been plenty of promise lately. They managed to beat up on Andrew Heaney last week, and as far back as a couple weeks ago won against the in-form Sean Manaea.
It makes sense why the Yankees would hit lefties, with so many right-handed power bats, and perhaps this is a sign that they’re just not the Dodgers when it comes to this split. After all, they are up to 11th in wRC+ to lefties.
I see this matchup against Yusei Kikuchi as very similar to the Heaney beatdown. His hard-hit rate is up to a career-high 41.5%, and his walk rate is above average at 8.5%. Kikuchi has flashed some good form this year and of late, but he’s also given up a home run in back-to-back starts and now has to face a Yankees lineup that looks menacing at the moment.
On the other side of the coin, it seems impossible to predict when the Mariners are going to break out offensively, but they’ve been very flat lately and I don’t think a big night is coming against Domingo Germán, who hasn’t been great this year but also hasn’t really had a very poor outing. As long as he holds the Mariners to three or fewer runs — a task that’s very attainable — the Yankees’ offense should clean up.
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