Rockies vs. Giants MLB Odds & Picks: Back a High-Scoring Game in San Francisco (Wednesday, April 28)
Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Colorado Rockies starting pitcher Germán Márquez.
- The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday in the third game of their series.
- So far, the offenses have stolen the spotlight, combining for 24 runs in the first two meetings.
- Michael Arinze explains below why he's expecting another high-scoring contest.
Rockies vs. Giants Odds
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Wednesday morning via BetMGM.|
Break out the champagne! The Colorado Rockies finally won their first road game. Colorado earned a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants on Tuesday, thanks to back-to-back home runs from Ryan McMahon and C.J. Cron in the 10th inning.
One can only wonder if they’ve gone back to the 2020 baseballs in this series, because Oracle Park has resembled more of a hitter’s haven than a pitcher’s park, with 24 runs scored in the first two games of this series.
That said, the series is up for grabs, with Colorado’s Germán Márquez squaring off against Alex Wood in Wednesday’s rubber game. At first glance, this matchup looks primed for a pitchers’ duel.
However, a closer look at the batter versus pitcher splits reveals that a high-scoring game could be in the cards again.
The Rockies have actually played better than their 9-14 record. They have a .391 win percentage, but their Pythagorean expectation based on runs scored and runs allowed would suggest the number should be closer to .483 so far.
Colorado’s offense is tied for seventh, with 107 runs scored. What’s remarkable is that it’s the only team in the majors with at least 107 runs that has a below-average wRC+ value (79). The club has not been a consistent team in getting on base, as it’s ranked 26th with a .291 OBP. However, the Rockies’ power numbers are above-average when considering they’re third in ISO (.183) and fifth in SLG (.419) overall.
The Rockies’ hitters could be in line for another power surge at the plate when they take on San Francisco’s Alex Wood. In 58 plate appearances against Wood, Colorado’s current lineup has a .458 wOBA. That’s .153 points higher than their season mark of .305 overall.
In addition, they have a .648 slugging percentage and a .241 ISO with three home runs and 17 RBI.
San Francisco Giants
With all the talk about the Padres challenging the Dodgers in the NL West, it has been the Giants staking their claim as the true contenders in the division.
At 15-9, San Francisco is tied with Los Angeles for the division lead. The Giants are happy to have their catcher Buster Posey back in the team after opting out last year due to the pandemic.
The year off must have done him some good, as the 34-year old is off to one of the best starts in his career. Posey is hitting .351 with a .413 OBP, but it’s his power numbers that have been the most impressive. In 63 plate appearances, he has a .667 slugging percentage with a .316 ISO. A .250 ISO is considered excellent, so at .316, Posey is pretty much in Roy Hobbs territory.
However, Posey’s not the only Giant who’s hitting for power. As a team, it has a .401 slugging percentage and currently tied for fourth with 31 home runs.
I imagine the Giants will be looking forward to another encounter with Márquez for Colorado. Their current lineup has over 100 at-bats against him, hitting .331 with a .402 wOBA. Their power numbers are also strong against him, as evidenced by their .556 slugging percentage and .226 ISO.
The Giants have already scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series, and I fancy another offensive display in the series finale.
Despite both pitchers coming into this game with decent numbers, you might have to throw that out the window as I think the familiarity the hitters have against them trumps it all.
We’ve already seen plenty of scoring in this series with 24 runs in the first two games, and I like that to continue. Both teams have been prodigious in their power numbers, so you could say they’re already in scoring position as they step into the batter’s box.
One thing to note is that we’ve had a steady wind blowing out to center field in this series, which is expected to continue in the series finale with speeds up to 10 mph.
I’m also encouraged that the over is a perfect 4-0 with Wood pitching in San Francisco. When you combine that with the hitters’ success against the opposing pitchers and the wind blowing out, I like the idea of playing this game over the total, which is listed at seven runs.
Pick: Total Over 7 Runs
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