After a few tough weeks, let's see if we can turn things around as we get deeper into the season.
The good news is we have enough sample size on most players to begin using exclusively 2025 stats, which should hopefully account for any big player-level developments.
I've found three picks for a surprisingly full Monday slate.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 12, 2025
Pirates vs. Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Paul Skenes vs. David Peterson
Through eight starts in 2025, Paul Skenes' first-time-through-the-order ERA sits at a perfect 0.00.
That means no hitter has been able to score a run against him the first time seeing him, a total time frame of 19 innings.
He's the headliner here, but the Mets' David Peterson isn't far behind. Peterson's first-time-through-the-order ERA is just 1.28, and the only YRFI he's allowed all season was in his first start back in March.
While the Mets have a powerful offense, they have to face Skenes. The Pirates, who aren't producing much, also have to take on a tough early-game pitcher. Overall, that's a strong combination.
Nationals vs. Braves NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Grant Holmes vs. Jake Irvin
Jake Irvin represents the opposite end of the early-game spectrum. The Nationals righty has a mediocre 3.96 overall ERA, but his ERA and xFIP jump into the mid-fives when facing hitters for the first time.
The Braves have a solid top of the order, with three of their first four hitters coming into the game with a 120 wRC+ or better.
Conversely, it's a tougher matchup for the Nationals against Grant Holmes, who has more typical first-time-through-the-order splits.
However, the Nats' top of the order is even stronger, with their first two batters coming in at around 150 wRC+ marks.
That gives us some equity on both sides of this one, which has an 8.5-run total, but the over is juiced at most books.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Justin Verlander
Both starters in this game have overall ERAs well into the fours, and their first-time through-the-order numbers aren't especially impressive.
That's especially true for Kelly, who has a 4.64 xFIP and 6.89 ERA his first time through the order. While the Giants' top of the order isn't particularly threatening, three of their first four have wRC+ marks of 120 or higher.
The Diamondbacks' top of the order is especially scary, with their first three hitters all among the top 20 hitters in baseball by wRC+ (with the caveat that Ketel Marte doesn't actually qualify for that leaderboard based on playing time missed).
They're taking on 42-year-old Justin Verlander, who has a 2.45 first-time-through-the-order ERA but an xFIP nearly two runs higher.
That gives us opportunities on both teams, all at a very solid price. The weather and park are less than ideal here, but we can accept that, given the low juice.
