The New York Mets host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 12, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SNY and MLB.TV.
The Mets enter as -166 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 7.
Find my Pirates vs Mets prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Pirates vs Mets Prediction
- Pirates vs Mets Pick: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
My Pirates vs Mets best bet is Pittsburgh pitcher Paul Skenes to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Mets Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7 -122o / +102u | +140 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 7 -122o / +102u | -166 |
Pirates vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
Pirates vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Pirates, Mets Pick & Betting Analysis
It's unfair to say a guy with a strikeout rate near 25% has fallen off, but Skenes set an extremely high standard in his rookie campaign. His 33.1% strikeout rate in 2024 ranked behind only Garrett Crochet among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched.
Skenes' 24.7% mark this season is still above average; it's just not at the level we're used to seeing from him.
The former LSU Tiger tends to change his approach based on his opponent. He went with a 15.7% curveball usage out of nowhere against the Dodgers and piled up nine strikeouts. However, he's used it just 5.7% of the time this season.
Skenes went heavy fastball/changeup in a quality start against the Nats, and he threw a ton of sliders against the Cubs in his first start of May.
His arsenal now includes seven pitches that he has thrown at least 5% of the time. Coming up with a plan to strike out righties (21.3% K%) seems to be the main question right now.
Pirates vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Mets rank 19th in K% over the past 30 days and sit 24th on the season. Tonight's projected lineup has a solid 21.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Mets lead the league in OPS and wOBA against righties over the past 30 days. They will likely have four lefties in the lineup, but three of them are their best contact hitters in Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo.
This is a challenging setup for Skenes' current profile.
Pick: Paul Skenes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)
Moneyline
I'm not betting either side in this game.
Run Line (Spread)
Like the moneyline, I'm not going to back the Pirates or Mets to come out on top.
Over/Under
While I'm not betting the game total, my best bet for this game is for Pittsburgh starter Paul Skenes to go under his strikeout total. Skenes has taken a small step back this season, and the Mets should be a difficult opponent for the young superstar.
