The Chicago Cubs host the Miami Marlins on May 12, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL and MLB.TV.
The Cubs enter as -258 favorites on the moneyline with the over/under sitting at 8.5.
Find my Marlins vs Cubs prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
- Marlins vs Cubs Pick: Connor Norby Over 0.5 Home Runs (+575 or Better)
My Cubs vs. Marlins best bet is on Miami infielder Connor Norby to hit a home run. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Cubs Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -258 |
Marlins vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
Marlins vs Cubs MLB Betting Preview
Marlins, Cubs Pick & Betting Analysis
A low-profile gem sticks out for Monday’s Marlins vs. Cubs matchup, particularly focusing on home runs.
Our proprietary PRO Projections, which leverage advanced analytics and expert MLB insights to identify value against betting markets, highlight Marlins’ Connor Norby as a prime candidate for a long-ball tonight.
Miami enters the game as a significant underdog, which, coupled with a fairly high total set at 8.5 runs, presents an attractive situation for betting on the Marlins’ home run odds.
Among individual player bets, Norby’s home run odds at +700 (currently available at FanDuel) offer compelling value.
Although the price has slightly decreased from +750, our data-driven models still suggest approximately a 0.18 home run expectation for Norby in this game, translating to about a 4% betting edge.
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, Betting Analysis
Norby is known as a pull hitter, and tonight’s contest at Wrigley Field provides an ideal environment for a home run with its short left-field fence.
While he has homered just once this season, our projections point toward a breakout performance.
Given the circumstances — a favorable ballpark, a solid matchup and an appealing price — and Norby stands out as a savvy home run bet at 7-1, a price that’s still good to +575.
Pick: Connor Norby Over 0.5 Home Runs (+575 or Better)
