MLB Odds & Picks: Count on Low-Scoring Affair in Giants vs. Rockies (Tuesday, August 4)

Credit:

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez

  • We don't see many MLB totals approach 12, but this one between the Rockies and Giants has, and even opened at 13.
  • Brad Cunningham's model likes this one to stay under the total with German Marquez on the mound for Colorado.
  • Get his full breakdown below.

Giants vs. Rockies Odds

Giants odds +175 [BET NOW]
Rockies odds -210 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 12 (-110/-109) [BET NOW]
Time Tuesday, 8:40 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday morning via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The Rockies have been hot to start the season and have put themselves in a position to compete with the Dodgers for the NL West crown. Taking care of business in series against the lowly Giants will be crucial if the Rockies are going to keep pace.

Giants 

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Despite not having any real threats in their lineup, the Giants have been decent offensively to begin the season. They rank 15th in MLB with a .320 wOBA and 108 wRC+.

They did get some good news this past week with Evan Longoria and Brandon Belt returning to the lineup. However, even those two aren’t going to save the Giants, as they rate out as the worst MLB lineup in my model.

The Giants ranked in the bottom five of MLB against fastballs and sliders a  year ago and it just so happens those are Marquez’s main two pitches. We’ll see if their struggles continue on Tuesday night.

Giants Projected Starter

Kevin Gausman, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Kevin Gausman only lasted 4 innings in his first start as he got tagged for two three earned runs and six hits against the Padres. His fastball is getting hit all around the yard, allowing a .430 wOBA to begin the season.

Gausman had been a highly touted prospect for the Orioles for a long time before getting traded to the Braves and then to the Giants over the past two years. The No. 4 overall pick in 2012 turned in some nice seasons to begin his career, but is starting to trend in the opposite direction.

In his first four seasons in the big leagues, he posted an xFIP under 4.0, but since then has three straight seasons of an xFIP over 4.0.

Gausman primarily uses two pitches, his fastball and splitfinger. His fastball has been steadily declining over the past few years as in 2019 he posted his worst wOBA against of his career.  That won’t bode well against a Rockies lineup that has been feasting on fastballs to begin the season.

His splitfinger has been very effective over his career. In 2019, it produced a 40.8% whiff rate and only a .256 wOBA against. As you can see, its got some sick drop on it.

Rockies

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Colorado has gotten off to a pretty good start offensively, posting a .330 wOBA and 95 wRC+. They’ve been lead by Trevor Story who already has four home runs and .505 wOBA to begin the season.

The Rockies’ biggest issue is the depth of their lineup. David Dahl, Trevor Story, Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are all studs, combining for 484 wRC+ in 2019. However, after those four guys, the lineup drops off pretty hard. It’s usually difficult for the Rockies to produce offensively when those four guys aren’t putting up numbers.

Rockies Projected Starter

German Marquez, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Marquez has been awesome to start the season, allowing only two earned on six hits in 11.2 innings of work. He’s also struck out 14 batters in the process, which has lead to a 2.73 xFIP in his first two starts.

German Marquez has above-average velocity on his fastball (features both a four-seam and a two-seam, both of which have pretty average movement). His four-seam is probably his more effective pitch, garnering a 13.3% whiff rate. His curveball is predominantly his best pitch, with only a .149 wBA against in 2019.

The Giants were one of the worst teams against fastballs and sliders a year ago, so look for Marquez to feature those two pitches Tuesday night.

Bullpens

Both bullpens are pretty bad, but both should be coming in with their full arsenal of guys, so the Giants have the slight advantage.

Projections and Pick

Coors Field is always a precarious place to take an under, but I think with two good starting pitchers on the mound, they can keep the game relatively low scoring. I am going to back Under 12 runs at -109 (DraftKings) and would bet it all the way up to -118.

Pick: Under 12 (-109)

[Bet $20+ at PointsBet and Win $100 if they get at least one hit]

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