For Wednesday, July 30, I'm on four MLB home run props: Giancarlo Stanton and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (against the Rays), Julio Rodriguez (against the Athletics), and Kyle Stowers (against the Cardinals).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR picks for Wednesday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, July 30
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:45 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 30
Giancarlo Stanton (+300); Jazz Chisholm Jr. (+350)
vs. Rays (SP: RHP Zack Littell)
I'm going hard on the Yankees tonight as they're in a great spot.
Rays starter Zack Littell has struggled heavily with the long ball this season, giving up 1.91 HR/9 to lefties and 1.76 HR/9 to righties. He's also allowed large fly-ball and hard-contact numbers to both sides of the plate.
The weather in New York is great for hitting with temps in the 90s and wind blowing out at 6 mph.
Giancarlo Stanton had a slow start coming back from injury, but the underlying numbers are good and he's been in good form recently with six homers in his last 14 games. I have the true odds on Stanton around +250, making this a great EV bet.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been great playing in Yankees stadium — 13 homers in 42 games — and given the spot, I have the true odds around +250.
Kyle Stowers (+475)
at Cardinals (SP: RHP Miles Mikolas)
Kyle Stowers is in a great spot tonight and the odds are far too high.
Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has been crushed by left-handed hitters this season, giving up 1.59 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
The weather is great for hitting today over in St. Louis with temps around 90 degrees and high humidity.
The Marlins' loanDeport Park is rough for power hitters, but Stowers still has 23 homers on the season and is due for some positive regression with a 20% barrel rate.
I have the true odds on Stowers around +350.
Julio Rodriguez (+400)
at Athletics (SP: LHP Jeffrey Springs)
After a slow start to the season, Julio Rodriguez has been hammering the ball recently with four homers in his last six games and seven homers over his last 15 games.
The Mariners star gets a great matchup against the Athletics' Jeffrey Springs, who has been hit hard by righty power this season (1.59 HR/9).
The weather is great for hitting over in Sacramento with temps over 80 degrees and wind blowing out at 10 mph in what is already a massive ballpark upgrade at Sutter Health Park.
I have the true odds on J-Rod around +300.
