Dodgers vs. Mariners MLB Odds & Picks: Bet Seattle’s Bats to Stay Hot (Monday, April 19)

Dodgers vs. Mariners MLB Odds & Picks: Bet Seattle’s Bats to Stay Hot (Monday, April 19) article feature image
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Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger (#17).

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners meet on Monday night in an interleague matchup on the West Coast.
  • The Mariners have been scorching hot at the plate and are among the league's most exciting young teams, but the Dodgers counter with Dustin May on the mound.
  • Kenny Ducey analyzes the matchup from all sides to offer his picks for Monday night's MLB matchup.

Dodgers vs. Mariners Odds

Dodgers Odds -215
Mariners Odds +180
Over/Under 8.5 (-104 / -118)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLBTV
Odds as of Monday at 2:15 p.m. ET and via FanDuel.

After cooling down an ascending Padres team in San Diego, the Dodgers will attempt to crush the spirit of another red-hot team: The Seattle Mariners.

Seattle sits atop the competitive AL West at 10-6 after taking two of three from the Astros. Nonetheless, Los Angeles has lost just three games and will send Dustin May to the hill on Monday. Will the Mariners continue to mash righties, or will this particular hurler prove problematic for Seattle’s fun and fiery offense?

Let’s dig into the matchup and look for the answer.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

Dustin May has continued to impress in his third year in the bigs, displaying excellent command of his tantalizing four-pitch arsenal and ranking among the game’s best at generating swings and misses.

Through two starts and 10.1 innings, the flamethrower has increased his fastball usage. In the process, May has struck out 14 batters, increased the whiff rate on his sinker by 8% and increased the whiff rate on his cutter by 2%. He’s also still yet to allow a barrel in 27 batted-ball events.

Seattle represents the biggest test of the season thus far for May, who met the Athletics in the midst of their season-opening slump and then faced the middling Rockies at home.

It will be interesting to see if he continues to use his four-seam fastball more frequently — he’s thrown it 21.8% of the time this season after throwing it just 5.5% of the time last year. As a result, his cutter and sinker have taken a bit of a backseat, but that’s helped increase their effectiveness, as noted above.

Offensively, it’s hard to have any qualms with the Dodgers, who have taken injuries to Cody Bellinger and Gavin Lux in stride. Zach McKinstry has inherited plenty of playing time at second base and in the outfield, and he has made the most of it with a 165 OPS+ in 51 plate appearances. The 25-year-old has helped bring some stability to the bottom of an order that has featured the likes of Luke Raley and Sheldon Neuse.

Even given those lineup changes, the Dodgers still rank third in contact rate — up from fifth last season — though they’re around the middle of the league in hard-hit and barrel rates: Two categories they absolutely dominated last season.

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Seattle Mariners

Seattle is streaking. This young, exciting team has won seven of its last 10 games and is all the way in eighth place with a 102 wRC+ against righties this year. Old heads like Kyle Seager have found plenty of success at the plate, while the likes of Ty France and Mitch Haniger have finally begun to put it all together. It’s hard to keep this offense down at the moment, and it’s even shown the ability in recent games to come from behind against pretty solid bullpen arms.

Monday will be another animal. May and his intimidating arsenal should present a different challenge than the tough pitching the Mariners have faced so far, though it shouldn’t be impossible to deal with. The right-hander relies a lot on his sinker, which is a pitch the Mariners can hit.

Kyle Seager faced 108 sinkers last season and had a .578 wOBA against the pitch, while France had a .404 expected batting average versus sinkers in 2020. José Mamolejos, J.P. Crawford, Luis Torrens and Dylan Moore were also above-average against the pitch as well. Though Seattle hasn’t faced many sinkers this season, at least Moore and France have continued to hit them in a small sample size.

The problem for the Mariners may very well be the man on the hill for them: Justus Sheffield. He’s struggled to find his footing in three seasons at the major-league level and carries a 5.87 xERA into this start thanks to a brutal .387 xwOBA, .544 xSLG and 40.6% hard-hit rate. His only saving grace will be that the Dodgers have just a 102 wRC+ against lefties and have historically struggled against southpaws.

Dodgers vs. Mariners Pick

As with any game featuring Justus Sheffield, you can expect runs to be scored against Seattle. The question here becomes whether or not the Mariners can get to May. Given the Mariners’ history with sinker-ballers, and their great numbers against righties, they certainly can put some runs on the board.  A relatively low total here of eight runs is a welcomed sight.

If anything, I’m worried about the Dodgers against a lefty; but, given the quality, I’m not too worried about them putting up four runs. I think this might be a pretty close game, and I’m also going to give the Mariners a look here at these ripe odds on the moneyline: I give them a very good chance to win.

Pick: Over 8 (-118), Mariners +168

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