MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Rockies: Back New York as Heavy Favorites Behind Jacob deGrom (Friday, April 16)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.
Editors note: This game has been postponed due to inclement weather in the Denver area. The game will be made up as part of a doubleheader starting at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Mets vs. Rockies Odds
|Time||Friday, 8:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM|
Jacob deGrom is pitching for the New York Mets against the bottom-feeding Colorado Rockies, and that means heartburn for Mets fans. deGrom has given up just one earned run in 14 innings this season, but he has an 0-1 record.
Like someone who wins the lottery and gets hit by a bus the next day, deGrom is one of the unluckiest people in America. He is the best pitcher in the league, but the Mets cannot win when he is on the mound for some reason. On the surface this would mean that I should bet against New York, but Colorado is so bad that my model likes the Mets moneyline, even at -275.
While my model gives a 3.9% edge on the Mets moneyline, it gives a -0.1% edge on the -1.5 run line (-180) and a 2.5% edge on the -2.5 run line (-110). If you don’t like small payouts, the -2.5 run line is the best bet. If you want to make the most profitable bet, the Mets moneyline is your best wager.
New York Mets
Despite pitching only twice this season, deGrom has a WAR of 0.8, as well as a 0.64 ERA, 2.18 xFIP, 0.71 WHIP and strikeout rate of 13.5 per nine innings. Even when deGrom inevitably reverts to the mean, he still will be the best pitcher in MLB.
In a hitter’s paradise like Coors Field, deGrom can negate the ballpark effects by striking out batters rather than putting balls into play. Additionally, he gives up just 0.78 home runs per nine innings. Even though Coors Field is the bane of many pitcher’s existence, it shouldn’t cause any problems for deGrom.
The key for the Mets is how much their lineup produces. I do not believe that the Mets are uniquely bad when deGrom pitches. I believe it is due to negative variance.
New York averages only 3.62 runs per game, which is the fourth worst in the league. However, my model likes the Mets lineup as constructed for Friday to produce 8.8% more runs than the average league lineup. With weapons like Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto, the Mets should score around five runs per night in a neutral ballpark. At Coors Field, I am not worried about this lineup.
To give you a picture of how bad the Rockies lineup is, you should look at how many runs they score away from Coors Field. Colorado is only averaging a league-worst 1.83 runs per game on the road. Obviously, this is an outlier this early in the season, but according to my model the Rockies should average 7.3% fewer runs than the league average per game based on their lineup.
The Rockies have three capable hitters in Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and C.J. Cron. The rest of the lineup is below average. Against deGrom, I do not know how this lineup will provide runs even at Coors Field.
Besides the Rockies lineup going against deGrom, the other reason to bet against them is their pitching. On Friday night, the Rockies are relying on Chi Chi González. While González is primarily a long reliever, occasionally he is used as a short starter.
Between his two starts this season, González has thrown an average of four innings. It can be easy to be misled by his 3.60 ERA, but he also has an xFIP of 5.84, implying that he has been incredibly lucky this season.
Additionally, the Rockies are hurt by González’s strikeout rate of only 4.5 per nine innings. While González is unlikely to pitch the majority of the game for Colorado, the Rockies bullpen has an ERA of 5.84 which is the second worst in MLB.
Do not overthink the Mets game just because I did. New York should easily win, and that is why it is worth laying the chalk with the -275 moneyline. The Rockies do not stand a chance with their pitching, and their weak lineup against Jacob deGrom.
While the Mets run lines look tempting, my model sees the most value with the moneyline. The -1.5 run line is a -EV play, while the -2.5 run line is a +EV play but not as good as the moneyline.
Pick: New York Mets Moneyline -275 (play to -285)
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