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MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Mets (Monday, April 12)

MLB Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Mets (Monday, April 12) article feature image

Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryce Harper

Editor’s Note: Monday’s game between the Phillies and Mets was postponed because of inclement weather. It will be made up as part of a straight doubleheader starting at 4:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Citi Field.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies Odds +118
Mets Odds -143
Over/Under 8.5
Time Monday, 7:10 p.m. ET
Odds as of noon ET Monday and via DraftKings

The Phillies head to New York to take on the Mets following an extra-inning win over the Braves on Sunday Night Baseball. Both teams faced one another just a week ago, with the Phillies winning the series two games to one.

Before that series, the Phillies were averaging three runs per game. But since then, they’ve averaged 4.83 runs per game. On Monday night, they’ll face Mets left-hander David Peterson, who has yet to make it past the fourth inning in his two career starts against the Phillies.

With Philadelphia’s team total set at 3.5, I’d expect the Phillies to be able to eclipse that mark in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies

Philadelphia is starting to look more and more like a Joe Girardi team. While the Phillies have plenty of power in their lineup, there’s a certain aggressiveness of the Phillies — particularly on the basepaths — that Girardi didn’t necessarily have during his time as the Yankees manager.

After nine games this season, the Phillies have already stolen seven bases, which ties them fourth in MLB.

This tactic makes plenty of sense not only because of the situational baseball teams must consider with the pitchers batting this season but also because the Phillies have a propensity to strike out (27.3%, ranked 24th) and they don’t draw a ton of walks (7.3%, ranked 26th).

On Monday, they could have a chance to improve their walk rate against Peterson, who has a 4.36 BB/9 ratio for his career.

If the Phillies can draw their share of walks against Peterson, their aggressive base running could be problematic for a Mets team that only caught 19.5% of would-be base stealers last season. This year, they’re right around that same mark with one runner caught stealing in five attempts.

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New York Mets

Judging by how his first two starts against the Phillies have gone, one could understand if David Peterson isn’t looking forward to seeing them on Monday night.

In 2020, Peterson lasted only two innings after surrendering five runs, including a home run and four walks. This year he made it to through the fourth inning but allowed six runs (two home runs) on seven hits. In those two games, the Phillies had a .400 / .531 OBP / .920 SLG slash line against him with a .520 ISO.

A quick look at how Philadelphia has handled left-handed pitching could explain some of their dominance against Peterson.

In 2020, the Phillies had a .350 wOBA against left-handers with an above-average wRC+ value of 118. The numbers show that the Phillies also displayed better plate discipline against the lefties as their 0.55 BB/K ratio was actually the best in the league.

It certainly helps when to have left-handed hitters who can also hit left-handed pitchers, and that’s exactly what the Phillies have in their lineup. In lefty vs. lefty matchups, they were above average in both ISO (.224) and wRC+ (102).

Phillies-Mets Pick

There is some light rain in the forecast for Citi Field on Monday night, and that has probably led to a lower than expected total. But if they’re able to get the game in with Peterson on the mound, I don’t see how the Phillies don’t go over their team total of 3.5 runs.

Philadelphia has scored four runs in six of their nine games this season and five of its last six. As mentioned earlier, the Phillies also have prodigious numbers in their 32 plate appearances against Peterson.

And when it comes time for Peterson to give way to the Mets bullpen, can you really trust that group that has stranded a league-worst 53.1% of runners on base?

I certainly won’t be able to.

After shopping around, I found that BetMGM has the best price on the board with a Phillies team total at -115 odds. We’ll need four runs to cash this ticket, and I like our chances to do so.

Pick: Phillies Team Total Over 3.5 runs (-115)

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