Thursday MLB Betting Odds & Picks for Phillies vs. Nationals: Back Philadelphia in Series Sweep (May 13)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Eflin.
- With their win on Wednesday, Philadelphia secured winning a three-game road series for the first time since 2019.
- Washington is just 3-7 over its last 10 games and is giving the ball to a shaky Patrick Corbin.
- Mike Ianniello explains below why he likes Zach Efflin and the Phillies to sweep the Nats on Thursday,
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-114 / -107)|
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
The Phillies came back to win a thriller in Washington on Wednesday night in 10 innings. The Nationals were two outs away from victory before an Odubel Herrera game-tying home run in the top of the ninth. Philadelphia went on to score three runs in the 10th inning to come away with a 5-2 win.
By securing wins in the first two games of the series, the Phillies lock up their first road series win of three or more games since September 2019. Philly won the first two games by a combined score of 11-4.
Philly will go for the series sweep on Thursday in a 1 p.m. ET matinee game.
In his sixth season in Philadelphia, Zach Eflin is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career. Eflin is off to a 2-1 start with a 3.38 ERA and 2.59 FIP through seven starts, both of which would be career highs.
The strength for Eflin is simple: throw strikes. He has allowed just three walks this season in 45 1/3 innings and has lasted at least six innings in all seven of his starts, due to his ability to keep his pitch count down and limit base runners. Eflin’s 0.60 BB/9 and 1.6 BB% are both the lowest walk rate in baseball.
Offensively, Philadelphia sits about middle of the pack. They rank 14th in the league in batting average, 17th in OPS, 20th in wOBA and 18th in runs per game. However, over the last week, the Phillies sit sixth in average and eighth in OPS.
The Phillies have gotten the performances needed from their top bats, with Jean Segura batting .349, J.T. Realmuto batting .314 and Bryce Harper hitting .308 with a 1.010 OPS. Andrew McCutchen has also been terrific lately, batting .313 over the last two weeks and leading the team with 15 hits, 10 RBIs and four home runs over that stretch.
In last night’s game, the Phillies had four players with multi-hit games, as Harper led the way with three hits, and Hoskins, Knapp and Herrera all picked up two hits.
Realmuto was not in the lineup Wednesday after being hit on the knee with a foul tip. Didi Gregorius left Wednesday’s game with right elbow stiffness. Both are questionable for Thursday, so you might want to check the lineup with an early start time.
Patrick Corbin has been one of my favorite pitchers to fade this season. He is 1-3 with a 7.36 ERA and an even worse 8.07 xERA. Teams are batting .270 against him with a 46.3 HardHit%. Teams are batting .387 with a whopping .935 slugging percentage against Corbin’s sinker, which he throws 30% of the time.
Take a look at Patrick Corbin’s league percentile rankings, courtesy of Baseball Savant:
In case it wasn’t clear, blue means bad. Corbin ranks in the bottom part of the league in every category and the bottom three percent of all pitchers in xwOBA, xERA, xBA, and xSLG.
Washington has struggled to score runs this season, ranking just 27th in the league in runs per game. What is strange is they have actually hit the ball pretty well. The Nats are seventh in the league in batting average and 13th in on-base percentage.
Most of their hits have been singles though, as they are 21st in slugging, 18th in wOBA and 23rd in wRC+. They are 25th in at bats per home run.
With Juan Soto missing 10 games with an injury, and Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber struggling mightily, Trea Turner has been the do-it-all man for this Nationals offense. The speedy shortstop leads the team in hits, runs, home runs, RBIs and stolen bases.
The Phillies have been red hot lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games and are within a game of first place in the division. Washington on the other hand, is just 3-7 in its last 10, and now has dropped four in a row.
Philadelphia is also 7-3 in day games this season and has the sixth-best batting average and seventh-best OPS in afternoon games this year. Does that matter? I have no idea, but it felt like something worth sharing.
I find it hard to trust the Nationals bats right now, and I certainly don’t trust Corbin. But while I do think the Phillies complete the series sweep here, their bullpen also makes me nervous.
Already ranking in the bottom third of the league, three of Philadelphia’s top bullpen arms in Connor Brogdon, Jose Alvarado and closer Hector Neris have all pitched in two straight games and are will likely be unavailable on Thursday.
With the bullpen uncertainty, I think the best bet here is to take the Phillies first five innings moneyline at -120 or better.
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies First 5 ML (-113) (Play to -120)