Wiseguys and sportsbooks got taken to the woodshed on Thursday as public favorites went an absurd 9-1 (+5.95 units). Sharps are eyeing big regression tonight. Historically, Friday has been the best day to Fade the Public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week, Average Joes are more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites, home teams and overs), which leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 9:40 p.m., 10:05 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Washington Nationals (+107) at Philadelphia Phillies
7:05 p.m. ET
The Nats have been a public darling for years. But they’ve lost 12 of their last 16 games and the recreational bettors are jumping ship. Fine by the sharps. Washington is getting only 37% bets, but they’ve moved from +107 to +106, indicating sharp reverse line movement/line freeze. Goodfellas at 5Dimes, Sportsbook, Pinnacle and BetOnline all hammered Washington, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves. The Nats are also in a historically profitable spot: they’re a road divisional dog with a high total (9) and match the Moneyline Ground Ball Pitcher Bet Labs system (+111.54 units).