Monday’s MLB Over/Under: The Rays Bullpen Could Stay With Luis Severino

Jul 23, 2018 1:38 AM EDT
  • The Rays will use their "bullpen game" strategy against the Yankees tonight.
  • Yankees ace Luis Severino has performed very well against the Rays so far in his career.
  • Considering how well the Rays have done on bullpen days and Severino's ace numbers, there is value on the under.

After two drama-filled over/unders to kick off our second half, it was nice to score a sweat-free Indians-Rangers Under 11.5 triumph yesterday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 65-41-3, +19.8 units
Yesterday’s Result: Indians-Rangers Under 11.5, Clevinger vs. Gallardo (WIN)
Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


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New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays | O/U: 7.5
7:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Luis Severino (14-2, 2.31 ERA) vs. Hunter Wood (0-0, 2.70 ERA)

Ah, it’s another Rays bullpen game and who better to match up against this standout unit than the Yankees’ ace?

When you take into account Severino’s superb work against Tampa Bay since first coming up three years ago, it’s hard not to agree that this is a good spot for under bettors.

In eight starts (and four relief appearances) against Tampa, Severino is 7-1 with a 2.38 ERA, while etching an impressive 71/15 K/BB ratio over 56.2 innings. In all but one of those starts, he allowed two runs or fewer. Severino has won both of his meetings with the Rays this season, yielding only two runs combined over 15.1 innings.

Also, take a look at the lineup he’ll be facing this evening. Ji-Man Choi batting cleanup with Joey Wendle right behind him? Willy Adames? And there’s ol’ dead bat Jesus Sucre batting ninth, which is like the equivalent of a pitcher’s spot in an AL game. It’s a very light-hitting batting order tonight.

That hopefully means we just need the Rays’ bullpen to not get lit up in order to cash this under bet — and considering the club’s rousing pitching success since going with this strategy regularly, that seems like a fine bet to make.

Wood will open tonight’s game for the Rays. It will be only his second “start” this season, but his first one went well as he tossed a scoreless inning to set the table for the rest of the relief corps. He’s also logged at least two innings in half of his eight outings, so he may get a longer leash here if he’s effective out of the gate.


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This will be the sixth time Tampa is deploying its “bullpen game” philosophy against the Yankees, and in the first five, the under went 4-1. The entire bullpen also figures to be available, giving manager Kevin Cash — the successful engineer of this particular operation — the most possible matchups with which to work, which is only a good thing.

If Severino works his usual mastery of the Rays, we should be set. Just make sure to get this under in as soon as possible with the line at 7.5, as I’ve seen it drop to 7 in some places. Even if it does drop to 7, I still like the under.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-125)

Credit:

Wendell Cruz, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Luis Severino

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@MattZylbert
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