The San Diego Padres host the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, July 13, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH and Padres TV.
The Phillies are favored to avoid a three-game sweep Sunday in a game featuring a marquee pitching matchup with Cristopher Sanchez (2.59 ERA, 107 2/3 IP) set to face off against Nick Pivetta (3.07 ERA, 102 2/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
My Phillies vs Padres Prediction
- Phillies vs Padres pick: Phillies Moneyline -130 (Bet365, Play to -140)
My Phillies vs Padres best bet is the Philadelphia Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Padres Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 7 -125o / 105u | -130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 7 -125o / 105u | +110 |
Phillies vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 9-2 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.5 |
| 2.59/2.92 | ERA /xERA | 3.07/3.92 |
| 2.75/2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 3.21/3.51 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.03 |
| 19.7% | K-BB% | 21.4% |
| 58.5% | GB% | 31.7% |
| 115 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 97 | Location+ | 111 |
Nick Martin’s Phillies vs Padres Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Sanchez Surging Into Ace Status
After finishing the 2024 season with a strong 3.32 ERA across 181 and 2/3 innings of work, Sanchez has taken considerable steps forward this season and, based on most metrics, is currently one of the best starters in the game. He holds a 2.92 xERA and 2.86 xFIP. He's generated ground balls at a comparable rate to last season (58.5%), but has struck batters out at a much higher clip.
Sanchez also holds an elite Stuff+ rating of 115, a Pitching+ rating of 114 and excellent extension off the mound at 6'6′.
Sanchez has been dominant recently, as he has pitched to a 1.54 ERA and 2.35 xFIP across his last five outings. He's struck out 8.49 batters per nine in that span, generated ground balls 67% of the time, and allowed an xBA of .199.
The Phillies offense has remained in strong form recently, with a ninth-ranked wRC+ of 111 over the last 30 days. They hold the eighth-highest BB/K ratio in MLB during that sample of play and rank sixth in hard-hit rate. They also rank 12th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season.
Alec Bohm is the only Phillies position player that may be unavailable for Sunday's matchup, as he is reportedly doubtful to play after taking a pitch to the rib cage on Saturday.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Pivetta Solid, But Regression Looms
Pivetta has proven to be a critical acquisition for the Padres, pitching to a 3.07 ERA and generating 2.5 WAR. His underlying metrics are strong, but his 3.92 xERA and 3.51 xFIP do suggest some regression could be on the horizon.
He has allowed a barrel rate of 11% and been hard-hit 41.1% of the time, yet still allowed a career-low home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of 9.5%.
Pivetta also holds a Stuff+ rating of 96, which correlates with his low whiff and chase rates and high hard contact rate.
Dating back to the start of last season, the Padres have been considerably less effective versus left-handed pitching than versus righties. They hold a 20th-ranked wRC+ of 94 versus lefties since the start of 2024 and rank 16th with a wRC+ of 91 versus lefties this season. They hold a 29th ranked hard-hit rate of 26.5% versus lefties this season, and rank 25th in ISO.
Phillies vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
Sanchez has been fairly untouchable for a relatively large sample of play, allowing just four earned runs in his last four appearances. He's also not allowed more than two earned runs since May 19, and continues to give Philadelphia an excellent chance to win each time he takes the mound.
Sanchez's underlying profile suggests he truly is one of the best starters in the game right now, and that he is still offering a considerable edge over Pivetta, who's having a great season in his own right.
The Padres have also been a below-average offense versus left-handed pitching dating back to the start of last season, and could struggle to manage much quality contact versus Sanchez.
At -140 or better there looks to be value backing Sanchez to lead the Phillies to a win on Sunday as they look to avoid entering the All-Star Break off a series sweep.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline -130 (Bet365, Play to -140)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Phillies to win is my favorite bet from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Phillies to cover the run-line at +130 also looks to provide value.
Over/Under
The total has dropped from 7.5 to 7, and currently looks to be set fairly given the quality starting pitching matchup.
Phillies vs Padres Betting Trends
