Welcome to the MLB All-Star Break and a key time to reflect on the "first half" and where the home stretch could bring us over the next two months before the playoffs.
The key focus so far in 2025 has been on big favorites and unders.
Total Difference
Unders Making Mark
Entering the All-Star break, MLB unders across every game played so far this season have cashed at a 53.2% rate — a winning percentage we haven't seen in almost 20 years.
The most recent examples of this before the All-Star break came in 2018, 2009, 2008 and 2005. All four seasons saw the under win percentage, under per-game profit per $100 bet and the ROI dip below what it was before the All-Star break.
ROI Difference Before/After ASB
2018: +1.8% to -0.5%
2009: +2.8% to +2.2%
2008: +3.9% to -7.1%
2005: +1.6% to +1.1%
Born in the Rockies
Rockies Betting History
Entering the All-Star break, the Colorado Rockies are 22-74 (23%) on the moneyline, with a $100 bettor down $3,504 for a -36.5% ROI.
Looking over a full season in the last 20 years, Colorado has a ways to go to get to the worst moneyline profit team, but the ROI journey should be fascinating. Here are the leaders in that span…
Biggest Moneyline Profit Losers Since 2005
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Biggest Moneyline ROI Losers Since 2005
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Under To Over
Streaky Yankees
The Yankees may be 52-42-2 (55.3%) to the under entering the All-Star break, but their first half will be remembered in streaks.
By the end of the streak, the Yankees had gone under the betting total in 16 consecutive games. Directly after that, New York went over the betting total in 12 straight.
A Chalk Run
Big Favorites Cruising
Over the last few seasons, big favorites in Major League Baseball — which we will constitute as -200 on the moneyline or higher — have hit at about 65 to 70 percent over a full season.
At the All-Star break in 2025, these big favorites are 179-58 (76%), winning by 2.2 runs per game with a $100 bettor up $1,349 for a 5.7% return on investment, which would be the third-best over a full season in the last 20 years (trailing the record by a single game).
These big favorites are 20-4 in July and 67-20 (77%) since June 1st.
Home Unders
Braves, Rangers Lead Way
The Rangers are 26-19 at home this year, which isn't bad — one of five AL teams with fewer than 20 home losses. But what has the attention of bettors is the totals in their home games.
This year, the full game under is 31-14 in Rangers home games, the best mark in baseball, with those games going under the total by almost 1.5 runs per game.
Over the past two seasons, that mark is 77-47-2 (62.1%), which would be the best if it weren't for Atlanta.
Best Home Under Record, Last Two Seasons
More Unders
Cleveland Rocks
One of the more consistent bets in the second half of MLB seasons is the under in Cleveland home games.
In their 100th game or later, when playing at home, Cleveland's home games have gone under almost 56% of the time across the past two decades, going above .500 to the under in six of the past seven seasons.
Cleveland is the best team in this spot, both since 2017 and 2005, according to Bet Labs.
Dead Aim
Rangers Lack Comeback
So far this season, the Texas Rangers have trailed by two runs or more in a game 40 total times, and they are 1-39 (2.5%) on the moneyline in those games, only coming back against the White Sox in June.
The lowest mark for any team in this spot since 2010 was the White Sox last year, who went 4-101 (3.8%) on the moneyline when trailing by two or more runs in any game.
Road Cooking
Marlins First Half
The role of the road underdog has done Marlins bettors well in the first half of the season.
As an underdog, the Marlins are 39-44 (42%) on the moneyline — a 13.5% ROI for a $1,121 profit, the best mark in baseball.
On the road, the Marlins are 24-24 (50%) on the moneyline — a 24.3% ROI for a $1,168 profit, the best mark in baseball.
Open Hot
Tigers Good Early
The Tigers have started a total of 31 series this season, according to Bet Labs — they are 24-7 (77.4%) in the first game of each of those series.
Not only is a $100 bettor up $1,033, best in baseball, but their win percentage is the highest for any team over the last 15 years.
Award Hunters
In The Mix
A lot of favorites are at the top of award odds leaderboards entering the All-Star break, but two guys were pretty good longshots in the preseason and near the top or the favorite late in the year.
American League Rookie Of The Year: Nick Kurtz of the Athletics opened the season at 66-1 to win the award and is now down to 4-1 as the third choice behind Jacob Wilson and Cameron Smith.
National League Rookie Of The Year: Jacob Misiorowski of the Brewers opened the season at 50-1 to win the award and is now the odds-on favorite at -235, ahead of Drake Baldwin.
Bad News
Justin Trouble
Justin Verlander has made fifteen starts this season for the Giants, and San Francisco is only 4-11 on the moneyline in those games. Of 290 starting pitchers this season, Verlander is 284th in profitability on the moneyline, which would be his personal worst season since 2013.
When Verlander isn't on the mound for the Giants this season, San Francisco is 48-34 (58.5%) on the moneyline, with a $100 bettor up $547. Meanwhile, they are down -$775 in Verlander starts.
Up North
Blue Jays In First
The surprise of the first half of the season has to be the Toronto Blue Jays, who sit atop the AL East at the break.
Entering the regular season, the Blue Jays were 12-1 to win the division, behind all four teams, who were all 9-1 or shorter. This would be the second time in three years a team at 10-1 or higher would win the AL East, with the Orioles in 2023 at 25-1.
At the moment, Toronto looks to be the most significant division longshot in the mix, and this is the list they would look to join since 2010 for the longest divisional winners.
2021 Giants, 50-1
2012 A's, 30-1
2023 Orioles, 25-1
2018 Braves, 25-1
2011 D-Backs, 16-1
2015 Rangers, 15-1
2022 Guardians, 10-1
Brave Face
Bad Expectations For Braves
If the Blue Jays are a surprise, the Atlanta Braves are the other side of that present.
If it weren't for the Rockies, Atlanta would be the least profitable team on the moneyline this season, losing a $100 bettor $2,486. That would be the worst mark for the Braves in the Bet Labs database, which goes back 21 years.
Over the last two years, the Braves are third-worst for bettors behind just the Rockies and White Sox.
Not Again
Still Negative
The Phillies have gone 13 consecutive seasons losing money on the moneyline for their bettors. Their last profitable season was in 2011.
So far in 2025, they are 55-41 on the moneyline, but for a $100 bettor, they are -$454 entering the All-Star break.
So Strange
Ups and Downs
Adrian Houser is a starting pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, and unless you are deep inside baseball, you probably don't have any idea who he is.
I am bringing him up because he is doing something only a gambler would notice.
In 2024, Houser made seven starts all for the Mets. All seven went over the full game total by an average of 2.4 runs per game.
In 2025, Houser has made nine starts all for the White Sox. All nine have gone under the full game total by an average of 4.8 runs per game.
Houser is the second-best pitcher to the under this season behind only Kodai Senga, who is 12-2 to the under.
Worse Than Colorado?
White Sox History
The White Sox have only been favored in two games so far this season — fewer games than the Rockies, who have been favored in four games.
Removing the 2020 Orioles (4 games as a favorite) and Pirates (1 game as a favorite) from the list due to the COVID-shortened season, the White Sox would need to be favored in two games to tie the 2023 A's and 2006 Royals for fewest in a season over the past 20 years.
Key Dogs
Looking at a system later in the season for worse teams, who are just mid-sized underdogs, but just in the first game of the series.
This has been profitable on the moneyline in six of the past seven seasons in the second half.
Collapsing Totals
A few looks at some weather systems for the last quarter of the season.
First up, a system that examines unders in games where moderate temperatures, crosswinds, and line movement suggest suppressed offensive conditions and sharp money alignment.
Blowing In
Look under for the full game total later in the season, and add this system to your arsenal, which looks at wind and direction to fit for the system to play.
This has been above .500 to the under in 19 of 20 seasons in Bet Labs.
