The 39th annual MLB Home Run Derby takes place at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga. The festivities will air live on ESPN and ESPN2.
The Home Run Derby field is littered with a bunch of first-time contestants (Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, Byron Buxton, Junior Caminero, James Wood, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brent Rooker) and just one with prior Derby experience (Matt Olson).
There are numerous ways to bet on the Home Run Derby, including head-to-head matchups, props, exactas and outright winner selections.
I'll take you through some of those home run betting markets and provide my thoughts and 2025 MLB Home Run Derby predictions and picks. You can also find the latest Home Run Derby odds and breakdowns for each player.
Home Run Derby Predictions, Odds, Lines
| Player | 2025 HR Count | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (Mariners) | 38 | +325 |
| Oneil Cruz (Pirates) | 16 | +325 |
| James Wood (Nationals) | 24 | +375 |
| Byron Buxton (Twins) | 21 | +650 |
| Matt Olson (Braves) | 17 | +650 |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 20 | +900 |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 23 | +900 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Yankees) | 17 | +1400 |
Odds via ESPN BET
Listed below is the field of eight hitters set to square off and how I project their relative chances compared to the best available listed odds, using our futures tool, as of Sunday night:
Home Run Derby Preview, Participants
I included my color-coded table (red is >90th percentile; blue is <30th percentile) for relevant hitter metrics; most of which (but not all) factored into the power ranking that drove my simulated Derby projections above.
Oneil Cruz and James Wood are the statcast stars of the show, ranking near the top of hitter leaderboards in bat speed, fast swing rate, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and both average and maximum exit velocity — all of which should correlate to derby success.
Cruz either leads or ranks second in MLB in the majority of those categories, and he owns the hardest-hit ball this season (122.9 mph) ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120.4 mph); Cruz strikes out too much (32.3%), and doesn't pull the ball enough to make use of those tools.
