2025 MLB Home Run Derby Predictions, Picks, Odds, Preview

The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby starts at 8 p.m. ET on Monday night at Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga. The festivities will air live on ESPN.

The Home Run Derby field is littered with a bunch of first-time contestants (Cal Raleigh, Oneil Cruz, Byron Buxton, Junior Caminero, James Wood, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Brent Rooker) and just one with prior Derby experience (Matt Olson).

There are numerous ways to bet on the Home Run Derby, including head-to-head matchups, props, exactas, and outright winner selections.

I'll take you through some of those MLB betting markets and provide my thoughts and 2025 Home Run Derby predictions.

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Bet Buxton to Win the Derby!

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Bet Oneil Cruz to Win the Derby!

Odds as of 12 p.m. ET Monday (via Caesars Sportsbook)

Listed below is the field of eight hitters set to square off and how I project their relative chances compared to the best available listed odds, using our futures tool, as of Sunday night:

Home Run Derby Field, Analysis

I included my color-coded table (red is >90th percentile; blue is <30th percentile) for relevant hitter metrics; most of which (but not all) factored into the power ranking that drove my simulated Derby projections above.

Oneil Cruz and James Wood are the statcast stars of the show, ranking near the top of hitter leaderboards in bat speed, fast swing rate, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and both average and maximum exit velocity — all of which should correlate to derby success.

Cruz either leads or ranks second in MLB in the majority of those categories, and he owns the hardest-hit ball this season (122.9 mph) ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (120.4 mph); Cruz strikes out too much (32.3%), and doesn't pull the ball enough to make use of those tools.

Wood, who prefers to hit balls into the left-center-field gap — and who owns the lowest pull air% (9.9%, 5th percentile) in the field — needs to adjust his swing path for the Derby.

He's not going to win the Derby by hitting lasers to the opposite field. But anytime Wood does pull the ball, its been a no-doubter on contact:

Wood also has a ground-ball rate north of 50%, which is the highest in the field.

However, he's been simulating Derby rounds over the past week and hitting baseballs to prep himself for the event; I expect him to adjust his swing path and timing to pull more balls in the Derby. The batted-ball profile is the only red flag alongside the elite power metrics, and he's making a conscious effort to pull balls to right or right-center:

I project Cruz and Wood as the top two choices in the field, ahead of the favorite, Cal Raleigh, who doesn't stack up as well in pure statcast metrics but pulls the ball in the air in-game better than anyone (37.9% Pull Air% %, 1st in MLB).

The switch-hitting catcher owns a higher career slugging percentage (.506 vs. .470) and ISO (.275 vs. .246) batting right-handed as opposed to left-handed. Truist Park shows a relatively neutral split for righty vs. lefty power; as a result, I'm curious which side Raleigh will choose to bat from tonight.

I'd expect Raleigh to have an extremely high floor in each round, but he doesn't have as high a ceiling as some of the other contenders.

Junior Caminero is the biggest wild card in the field; he swings the bat as hard as anyone in the game, but isn't efficient at the point of contact, with the lowest barrel rate and sweet-spot rate among the contenders. I wouldn't be surprised if Caminero either won the Derby or finished with the lowest Round 1 total.

Brent Rooker and Jazz Chisholm Jr. have the two most bland profiles.

Jazz has one of the highest barrel rates among the contenders but also a few glaring warts, including the lowest bat speed and average HR distance in the field. Thirteen of his 17 homers have come at Yankee Stadium this season — there's no short porch to take advantage of at Truist Park.

Rooker's profile is more about contact efficiency (87th percentile in sweet spot; highest in the field) than raw power or athleticism. From a Derby perspective, he's a lesser version of Raleigh — high floor but limited ceiling.

Atlanta native Matt Olson has park familiarity and generates loud contact, but — like Wood — he's an all-fields hitter (27th percentile in pull air%). He's one of three hitters in the field (along with Jazz and Rooker) who rank outside of the 90th percentile in bat speed (Jazz 70th, Olson 74th, Rooker 79th).

I prefer Byron Buxton at a slightly higher price point. Buxton left Wednesday's contest against the Cubs after taking a pitch off the hand, but returned over the weekend against Pittsburgh and went 9-for-13 with a homer.

Buxton offers the best combination in the field of raw power and the natural ability to pull the baseball in the air, and only Mike Trout has hit a ball further in 2025.

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In summation, I generally show value on three players in the HR Derby markets — Cruz, Wood, and Buxton — and while I prefer Wood, there are ways to bet on all three players to succeed, at actionable odds.

You can also bet on any of those hitters to win outright: Cruz (+380 at Caesars), Wood (+475 at DraftKings) or Buxton (+900 at DraftKings). I'd bet them down straight to +325, +425, and +750, respectively.

Alternatively, you could bet on any of those players to advance out of Round 1, into the Top 4. You can bet Cruz at -200, Wood at -120, and Buxton at +120 at Caesars — each at significant edges compared to my projected odds.

And you could place correlated bets on any of those players to make the final: Cruz (+155), Wood (+225) and Buxton (+380) — or play the three-name the finalists exactas mixing those hitters. Wood vs. Cruz (+1200 at DraftKings); Buxton vs. Cruz (+1600 at FanDuel); Wood vs. Buxton (+2300 at FanDuel).

I'd rather go the long-shot route, however.

I can structure these six exact result wagers (at combined odds of 2x or higher than the name the finalists wager involving the same players), rather than playing the three name the finalists props at lesser odds:

• Cruz over Wood (+2000) at FanDuel
• Cruz over Buxton (+2500) at Caesars
• Wood over Cruz (+2500) at DraftKings
• Wood over Buxton (+3800) at FanDuel
• Buxton over Cruz (+4300) at FanDuel
• Buxton over Wood (+4400) at FanDuel

In the prop market, I also like the National League to win the Derby.

Despite having just three of the five entrants, I project one of Cruz, Wood or Olson to win 53.7% of the time (-116 implied odds). I would bet that prop to -105.

Bet on one of Cruz or Wood (whichever you prefer) outright (with potentially a smaller share on Buxton) and then take the NL prop as a partial hedge to cover my other top selection.

Additionally, bet Cruz to post the highest exit velocity on a homer in the Derby at plus money (+125 at FanDuel); he paces the field by a wide margin in both average exit velocity (96.4 mph; 2.7 ticks ahead of Matt Olson at 93.7 mph) and he owns the highest Max EV in the field by 5 mph (122.9 mph vs. 117.9 mph for James Wood).

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• Exact Result: Oneil Cruz over James Wood (+2000, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +1400
• Exact Result: Oneil Cruz over Byron Buxton (+2500, 0.05u) at Caesars; bet to +1600
• Exact Result: James Wood over Oneil Cruz (+2500, 0.05u) at DraftKings; bet to +1500
• Exact Result: James Wood over Byron Buxton (+3800, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +2800
• Exact Result: Byron Buxton over Oneil Cruz (+4300, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +2300
• Exact Result: Byron Buxton over James Wood (+4400, 0.05u) at FanDuel; bet to +3000
• League of Winner: National League (+105, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -105
• HR Derby Winner: James Wood (+475, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +425
• HR Derby Winner: Byron Buxton (+950, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +650
• HR with the Highest Exit Velocity: Oneil Cruz (+125, 0.25u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
• Make Final 4: Byron Buxton (+120, 0.25u) at Caesars; bet to -110
• Make the Finals: James Wood (+225, 0.25u) at DraftKings; bet to +195

• • Final 4
    • Oneil Cruz (-200 at Caesars)
    • James Wood (-120 at Caesars)
  • Make the Finals
    • Oneil Cruz (+155 at Caesars)
    • Byron Buxton (+380 at DraftKings)

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Bet Buxton to Make the Finals!

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Bet Cruz to Make the Finals!

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Bet Wood to Make the Finals!

• Name the Finalists
  • James Wood vs. Oneil Cruz (+1200 at DraftKings)
  • Byron Buxton vs. Oneil Cruz (+1600 at FanDuel)
  • James Wood vs. Byron Buxton (+2300 at FanDuel)
• Winner
  • Oneil Cruz (+380 at Caesars)