Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Berrios, Borucki Make Second-Half Debuts

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Berrios, Borucki Make Second-Half Debuts article feature image

Kevin Sousa, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ryan Borucki

  • Blue Jays rookie starter Ryan Borucki has been impressive in his short major-league career.
  • Opposing Borucki tonight will be Jose Berrios, who is fresh off his appearance at the All-Star Game.

Last night’s game featured some garbage earned and unearned runs that we just could not overcome. So we’ll flush it and move on to Tuesday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 65-42-3, +18.7 units
Yesterday’s Result: Yankees-Rays Under 7, Severino vs. Wood (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays | O/U: 8.5
7:07 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Jose Berrios (9-7, 3.68 ERA) vs. Ryan Borucki (0-1, 3.52 ERA)

The All-Star break might’ve come at the right time for Borucki, a rookie who endured his first hiccup since his promotion with a lackluster outing in Boston right before the Midsummer Classic.

Before that, the 24-year-old southpaw blossomed in his first three major-league starts. Borucki not only pitched into at least the seventh inning in all three of his outings, but he did it while surrendering no more than two runs in any of them. Plus, two of those assignments came against hard-hitting offenses, the Yankees and Astros.

The remarkable thing is that Borucki is achieving this success very early in his career despite a ridiculous .370 batting average on balls put in play (BABIP). Obviously, it is completely unrealistic for that number to stay that high and it should deflate considerably a lot sooner than later.

Borucki is certainly doing everything in his power, producing impressively low line-drive (24.7%) and fly-ball (28.8%) rates on contact against him. You also have to admire the fact that he has still not allowed a home run in his 23 big-league innings (knock on wood). The Twins better not be the first team to pull of this feat, because they’re dead last in baseball in at-bats per home run (53.1) with a lefty on the mound.

Opposing the 2012 15th-round draft pick this evening will be an All-Star and a fellow 24-year-old in Berrios. The three-year veteran is coming off what should be a nice momentum boost, as he recorded a scoreless inning in the exhibition game.

One of the main reasons I like having Berrios in an under wager is that he can be dominant on any given fifth day. In fact, in more than half his starts (11 out of 20), the Minnesota right-hander has allowed two or fewer runs.

Having Bobby Wilson behind the plate for the Twins in this one could increase the likelihood of that happening. Why does Wilson’s presence matter, you ask?

Well, Berrios has looked far better with the former Angel behind the plate compared to the other two regular backstops (Jason Castro, Mitch Garver), posting a 2.75 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in eight starts with Wilson doing the catching. He’s also delivered an outstanding 67/9 K/BB ratio in those 55.2 innings, while serving up only three homers. Oh, and it also helps that Wilson is a dead bat in the starting lineup.

With this over/under, you may want to wait until that 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch, as it’s possible the line goes to 9. Even if it doesn’t, I’ll still be on the under.

Play: UNDER 8.5/9