Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet Cardinals-Reds (1:05 p.m. ET) and Astros-Athletics (4:07 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Saturday, the Brewers and Nationals played one of the most exciting games of the 2019 season.
Per The Action Network App, both teams had multiple instances when they had an 85%+ chance to win as a result of major situational changes throughout the Brewers 15-14 win:
- Top 3rd, Brewers lead 5-0 (94% chance to win)
- Bottom 6th, Brewers lead 8-5 (86% chance to win)
- Bottom 7th, Nationals lead 11-8 (99% chance to win)
- Bottom 9th, Brewers lead 12-11 (85% chance to win)
- Bottom 9th, tied 12-12 (Nationals 95% chance to win)
- Bottom 14th, Brewers lead 15-13 (94% chance to win)
- Bottom 14th, Brewers lead 15-14 (66% chance to win)
In the bottom of the ninth inning, the Nationals had the winning run on third base with no outs and struck out three times.
In the bottom of the 15th inning, the Nationals had the tying run on second base and the winning run on first base, but couldn’t get the hit that they needed to knot the game up again.
The game was so good, Jack White and the Racounteurs came to see it twice:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 1-4-1 and I finished down 1.49 units for the day.
It was a slightly negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost 11 cents on the three sides that I played, but of the three totals that I played, two moved in my direction. The Yankees under dropped by a full run, from 11 to 10, while the Athletics under dropped by a half run, from 10.5 to 10.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, August 18
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5).