Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 22: Can Lynn Help Rangers Avoid Sweep in Oakland?
Tim Heitman, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Lance Lynn
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet the Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics (4:07 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After winning 97 games in 2018, prognosticators expected regression for the Oakland Athletics this year.
Despite a lineup that has trotted out the struggling Khris Davis – who slugged 133 home runs between the 2016-2018 seasons for the A’s, but has a .670 OPS with just 32 extra-base hits this season – and a rotation that includes journeymen starters such as Mike Fiers, Tanner Roark, Brett Anderson and Homer Bailey — the Athletics are on pace to win 98 games.
They hold a two-game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays (who are a game ahead of Cleveland), for home-field advantage in the Wild Card hunt, and have demolished Texas lefties Mike Minor and Brock Burke for 26 runs in 13.2 innings over four starts in the past ten days.
But Lance Lynn has been been the most valuable pitcher in the American League (6.0 WAR), and owns two straight quality starts against Oakland.
Is he worth backing on Sunday afternoon?
All odds as of Sunday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-2 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 5-4, and I finished up 0.80 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents against the Phillies moneyline (+155 to +140) but saw the Reds moneyline move in the opposite direction (+121 to +147) – mostly after news broke that their manager had sent five players home with flu-like symptoms.
Two totals, including Oakland’s team total (5.5 to 5), moved opposite my number by half of a run; while the Brewers-Pirates over climbed from 9 to 9.5.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, Sept. 22
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Marlins, Rangers, Reds, and Rockies as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins, Rangers, and Reds as F5 plays.
Three teams (in addition to the Orioles and Tigers) who I won’t bet on right now, regardless of line value?
- The Rockies, who have been playing at a 56-win pace in the second half, have a terrible bullpen and are starting Antonio Senzatela (5.44 FIP) against a Dodgers team trying to secure home-field advantage in the World Series.
- The Pirates, who are playing at a 51-win pace in the second half, and are getting outscored by more than three runs per game in September.
- The Marlins, who are playing at a 49-win pace in the second half, and a 40.5-win pace since the beginning of August.
I try to take a holistic approach in looking for reasons not to play a team. And in September, with expanded rosters, these teams have little motivation to win as they evaluate and develop talent for 2020.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are playing better in the second half (a 73-win pace) than they did prior to the All-Star break (a 60.5 win pace), as they look to build momentum towards 2020 with their group of potential star prospects (though Bo Bichette remains out with a concussion).
They also fit a few profitable Bet Labs systems for today, in an extremely contrarian spot against the Yankees:
And Luis Severino’s velocity was down in his first outing of 2018, from where it was prior to his injury:
The fastball was down a full tick, but the slider was down about four mph (from 88 mph to 84 mph)
I also try to eliminate any loyalty bias when it comes to the teams that I should select.
For example, I’m a Mets fan and have bet against my team for each of the past two days, and will once again today – despite the fact that they still have a remote chance of capturing a wild card spot.
It’s not an emotional hedge – there’s just been clear line value on the Reds for the entire series.
Trevor Bauer is coming off of his best start as a member of the Reds (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K); decreasing his slider usage while increasing his curveball rate of late in his last three starts:
Trevor Bauer, Filthy 79mph Knuckle Curve. 😷 pic.twitter.com/dFoyoviiEb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2019
Furthermore, I have cashed tickets on the Athletics for each of the past two days and have won five bets on them within the past 10 days.
On Sunday, I’ll gladly go against them, because there’s obvious line value on the Rangers.
I discussed Lance Lynn before his most recent start on Sept. 17, when he pitched well (7 IP, 1 BB, 8 K) despite surrendering three home runs to the Astros.
It’s not hard to see that this has been a career year for the righty:
Lynn’s FIP (3.24) is more than a run better than that of Tanner Roark (4.35), and I backed the Rangers in both halves.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 22
- Boston Red Sox (+159) Game Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (+123) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+160) F5 Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+170) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+268) Game Moneyline
- Under 9 (-120), Nationals at Marlins
- Over 9 (-103), Pirates at Brewers
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/22
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.