Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 26: Will Dustin May Deliver for Dodgers vs. Padres?
Steve Mitchell, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dustin May
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet Dodgers at Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Cardinals (71-58) and Brewers (67-83) begin a three-game set in Milwaukee on Monday, with Adam Wainwright (9-9, 4.51 ERA) taking on Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64 ERA)
St. Louis holds a 2.5-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central race, and the Brewers are two games behind the Cubs in the Wild Card hunt.
With the Washington Nationals (73-57) out to a four-game lead over the Cubs, there’s probably only room for two teams from the Central division, at most, in the NL playoffs – as the Phillies, Mets, Giants and Diamondbacks all remain within four games of the hunt.
Can Adam Wainwright extend the Cardinals division lead on Monday, or will the Brewers gain some ground towards a second consecutive playoff appearance?
Is Aaron Judge the new Babe Ruth? The Yankees slugger promised a child that he would hit a home run on Sunday, and No. 99 delivered:
The Yankees won, 5-1, taking two out of three games from the Dodgers in what could prove to be a World Series preview.
However, the Dodgers bullpen continues to be a major concern for their chances in October – not only in terms of depth but also as to how Dave Roberts deploys his pitchers and provides them with adequate rest.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 4-2, and I finished up 1.46 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 13 cents overall against the sides that I played, netting as much as 18 cents against the Angels moneyline (+180 to +162).
MLB Betting Model for Monday, August 26
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Cardinals, Marlins, Mariners and Padres as full-game plays. The model also likes the Padres as a F5 play.
Let’s begin with the Cardinals-Brewers matchup and Adam Wainwright, the most profitable pitcher on the moneyline in the BetLabs database (195-113, 63.3%, +36.7 units, 11.9% ROI).
Wainwright is just 17-15 (+0.8 units) on the moneyline since the starts of the 2018 season, but his effectiveness has held relatively steady since the start of the 2017 season:
Wainwright used to be an above-average pitcher, but now he’s just…average.
His strikeout minus walk rate (12.5%) is currently at its best level since 2015, and Wainwright continues to roll groundballs at a rate near 50%.
However, Wainwright’s average exit velocity of 88.3 mph is a full four ticks above 2018, and his hard-hit rate (39.3%) is seven points above his career average – 16% higher than in 2018.
The cutter and curveball mix continues to be Wainwright’s most effective combination, throwing the two offerings a combined 58% of the time.
Wainwright throws his curveball 35.4% of the time; more frequently than any other pitch, and the third-highest rate in baseball.
By career value, it rates as the fourth-best curveball per FanGraphs; behind only Roy Halladay, Corey Kluber, and A.J. Burnett:
Adam Wainwright, Winner by KO over Adam Eaton (75mph Curveball). 🥊 pic.twitter.com/c0UnjaCrJK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2019
I have the Cardinals as a coinflip in this matchup (49%) and will back the better team at plus money.
Later this evening, the Dodgers will take on the Padres in Dustin May’s fourth career start.
Los Angeles attempted to transition the rookie to a bullpen role prior to their playoff run, but the experiment blew up in their face on August 18 against the Braves – as May allowed four runs over two innings with a lead in a 5-3 loss.
I still like May going forward, and he has shown excellent command in his four MLB outings (15 K, 3 BB in 19 IP), but I do see line value on the Padres at home.
Note that the Dodgers are significantly more effective against right-handed pitching than against lefties, both over the course of this season (113 wRC+ vs. RHP; 102 wRC+ vs. LHP) and since the trading deadline (127 wrC+ vs. RHP; 95 wRC+ vs. LHP).
Padres southpaw Eric Lauer has pitched to a 4.19 FIP this season, and there’s plenty to like about this 24-year-old, former first-round pick.
He has a below-average swinging-strike rate, as he throws his fastball and cutter a combined 74% of the time, but Lauer’s curveball (17%) shows the best value on a per-pitch basis.
He has a smooth, repeatable delivery, and should continue to develop into a better pitcher, but Lauer also has a very high floor as a backend No. 4 or No. 5 starter.
Eric Lauer in six career starts against the Dodgers:
💨 4-0, 1.72 ERA
💨 .190 opposing BA
💨 0.93 WHIP pic.twitter.com/x7i3vnODmq
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) August 3, 2019
The lanky lefty has already made three solid starts against the Dodgers this season (combined 17 IP, 11 H, 6 R, 3 BB, 17 K), and I’m expecting another quality outing from him on Monday.
Bets (so far) for August 25
- Colorado Rockies (+140) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+132) Game Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (+122) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/26
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.