Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/17: Will Cardinals Continue Road Woes for Archer?
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Chris Archer
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Cardinals-Pirates (1:15 p.m. ET) and Braves-Brewers (2:10 pm. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I see a lot of potential underdog line value on Wednesday’s board, but I think it could turn out to be a very chalky day.
Thankfully, it’s a split slate and there are a few early plays involving the Braves and Cardinals that I was more than happy to make, allowing me to spend the remainder of the afternoon pondering whether to back bigger underdogs like the Blue Jays, Giants and Rays.
What’s better than cashing underdogs? GOOD BASEBALL DOGS:
It is our honor & privilege to present to you this Good Content. pic.twitter.com/aTHq1KCGk3
— Cut4 (@Cut4) July 17, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-3 against full-game moneylines and 3-2-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 7-3, and I finished up 2.90 units for the day.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 43 cents overall against moneylines, netting as much as 30 cents on Tampa Bay’s F5 moneyline (from +145 to +115).
I played five totals (all unders), and while the Astros-Angels total dropped by a full run from 10.5 to 9.5, the Yankees-Rays and Dodgers-Phillies totals each inflated by one-half run.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, July 17
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Cardinals, Giants, Rays and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Braves, Cardinals and Rays as F5 plays.
Let’s first discuss the Cardinals and Daniel Ponce de Leon, and why I think he is a deserving favorite at home today.
Since the beginning of 2018, amongst the 408 pitchers who have amassed 60 innings pitched or more, Ponce de Leon has averaged the third-best weighted fastball value per 100 pitches (+2.42) — behind two relievers: Will Harris and Bryan Shaw.
For additional context, Josh Hader ranks seventh, with a weighted value of +1.94, and the nearest starting pitchers to Ponce de Leon over that sample are Brandon Woodruff (+1.78), Max Scherzer (+1.65) and Gerrit Cole (1.52).
What an outing from Daniel Ponce de Leon, the #STLCards No. 15 prospect.
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 20, 2019
Amongst that same group of pitchers, Ponce de Leon also ranks seventh in weighted cut-fastball value (+2.34).
He throws the two offerings a combined 83% of the time, also mixing in a slow curveball (8.5%) and changeup (8.5%), and has pitched to a 3.59 FIP and 3.88 xFIP in 2019.
Chris Archer has pitched to a 5.72 FIP and 4.61 xFIP this season, though his xFIP is down to 3.69 over his past eight starts.
However, he ranks in the bottom 3% amongst pitchers in barrel rate (12.7%), and in the bottom 10% for xSLG (.497), xwOBA (.367) and xwOBA on contact (.466).
Notice anything about his rate of hard contact allowed?
If you’re into home vs. road splits, Archer also has another noticeable trend worth mentioning:
- 2019 Home: 4.04 ERA, .327 wOBA
- Career Home: 3.36 ERA, .287 wOBA
- 2019 Road: 7.32 ERA, .366 wOBA
- Career Road: 4.31 ERA, .315 wOBA
I took the Cardinals both in the first half and over the full game because I projected their fair odds closer to -200 than -150.
I also played the Braves in the first half against the Brewers. Josh Hader still has not pitched since July 12, so chances are high that he will enter a close game on Wednesday — and I’ll look to avoid his portion of the game.
After a couple of subpar outings to begin the season, Dallas Keuchel has tossed three straight quality starts, going seven innings or more in each outing.
His groundball rate is back over 61% (career 59%) after falling to 54% in 2018, as he’s throwing fewer four-seam fastballs and sliders in exchange for additional sinkers and cutters.
I think Keuchel can pitch to his career averages for the remainder of 2019 and would expect a FIP of around 3.80 going forward — about one-half run better than Brewers starter Chase Anderson (4.33 FIP in 2019, 4.47 career).
I also played the Phillies-Dodgers under once again. The teams have combined to score 35 runs over the first two games of their series, causing over 80% of the public to pile on the over for Wednesday.
Naturally, this game triggered as another contrarian under, as I discussed on Tuesday:
Bets (So Far) for July 17
- Atlanta Braves (+105) F5 Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (-135) F5 Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (-125) Game Moneyline
- Under 10.5 (-115), Dodgers at Phillies
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/17
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.