Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 31: Will Diamondbacks Clinch Series vs. Dodgers, Kershaw?
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Robbie Ray
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Saturday's slate of games, including how to bet Dodgers at Diamondbacks (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Arizona Diamondbacks (69-66) are still relevant in the NL Wild Card race, just 4.5 games back of the Chicago Cubs.
They have stayed afloat through much of the season, setting records for staying within four games of .500 for the longest stretch in MLB history.
As a result, their current five-game winning streak is the longest that this club has had in quite some time, and they still have a chance to make a Wild Card run if they can stay hot over the final month of the season.
Can MLB’s best defensive team gain a much-needed series win over the Dodgers on Saturday?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-5, and I finished down 1.62 units for the day; losing all three unders in the potential final frame.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 51 cents against the three sides that I played and only gave back 10 cents against totals – none of which moved off of my number.
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, August 31
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Athletics, Marlins, Royals Phillies and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Athletics, Marlins and Phillies as F5 plays.
I wasn’t keen on playing Homer Bailey at Yankee Stadium today, but the Yankees line has been steamed past the point of reason. In eight starts with Oakland, Bailey has pitched well (38 K, 9 BB, 4.02 FIP in 44 IP).
Bailey has been (gasp) an above-average pitcher in 2019:
I know, I’m just as surprised as you are. How has he done it? One possible explanation is a career-high in split-finger fastball usage, to over 25%:
The splitter induces whiffs (36.6%) more frequently than any other pitch in Bailey’s arsenal – more than 10% clear of either his curveball and slider.
Every day you learn something new, like how Homer Bailey has the highest splitter usage among AL starters (25.8%). The Yankees learned that the hard way… pic.twitter.com/HavHFULDvo
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) August 21, 2019
I broke down Domingo German and his filthy curveball before Sunday Night Baseball on August 25, and I would expect a pitchers duel here.
The fielding independent metrics between the two are much closer than you would expect.
I also bet the Under 11 and might regret it later – but the Yankees have cashed Under 53% of the time at home this season – compared to 32.8% away from Yankee Stadium.
As for the night matchup, I’m backing the Diamondbacks to win three in a row against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers.
I also discussed Clayton Kershaw in that August 25 article that I linked above, so if you want a deeper dive either or both of German or Kershaw its a recommended read.
The splits are in Arizona’s favor on Saturday in a battle of southpaws – their offense ranks 22nd in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching but improves to 4th vs. lefties. Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank second in wRC+ vs. righties but fall to 11th vs. left-handed pitching.
My one concern is that Diamondbacks closer Archie Bradley went 1.2 innings for the save on Friday and they have also had to utilize their key left-handed relievers for two consecutive days; likely putting any close/late situation upon Yoan Lopez (2.99 ERA, 4.99 FIP).
It has been up and down for the hard-throwing righty against the Dodgers in big spots this season:
If you dish it out you better be able to take it too 💯 pic.twitter.com/E3ayXUMPhL
— Baseball Avenue (@BasebaIIAvenue) August 29, 2019
Bets (so far) for August 31
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+132) Game Moneyline
- Chicago White Sox (+190) Game Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies (+112) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+190) Game Moneyline
- Over 9.5 (+105), Orioles at Royals
- Over 9 (-110), White Sox at Braves
- Under 11 (-115), Athletics at Yankees
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/31
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.