Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 25: Can Logan Webb, Giants Win Series in Oakland?
Jennifer Stewart-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Logan Webb
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including how to bet Giants at Athletics (4:07 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Through seven and one-third innings on Saturday, everything was going well for the Oakland Athletics — they had knocked Madison Bumgarner out of the game after five innings, held a 4-2 lead and had turned over the final five outs of the game to their bullpen to seal out a victory.
The Giants rallied, scoring eight runs in the eighth inning on seven hits, a walk, and a wild pitch.
The signature blow came from Stephen Vogt, the man wearing “I Believe” on the back of his player’s weekend uniform — who completed the batting around sequence with a three-run home run — extending the Giants’ lead to 10-5 for good.
The Giants (64-65) are five games out of an NL Wild Card spot, needing to pass four teams to gain playoff positioning, while the loss pushed the Athletics (74-54) to third place in the AL Wild Card, one-half game behind the Rays.
Will the Giants continue to play spoiler to their Bay Bridge rivals on Sunday, or will the Athletics keep pace with Cleveland and Tampa Bay in their playoff push?
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-6, and I finished down 1.83 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 31 cents against the sides that I played but also netted as much as 31 cents against the Cubs moneyline (-137 to -168). A couple of totals also moved by a half of a run against me.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, August 25
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Giants, Orioles and Royals as full-game plays. The model also likes the Angels, Giants and Royals as F5 plays.
Let’s talk about the Angels and Giants, both of whom I selected on the full-game moneyline for Sunday.
I discussed Angels starter Jaime Barria most recently on Aug. 9, noting that the young righty had made a conscious decision to throw his slider more frequently than the remainder of his arsenal — with a usage rate of 43% in a seven-game span.
Barria’s slider usage and results in his past two outings? 46.5% on Aug. 9, and 57.1% on Aug. 20 — striking out seven batters against one walk over 10 innings.
This is a case of a team optimizing a pitcher by forcing him to throw his best stuff as often as possible. During his 2018 debut, Barria’s slider was his only pitch to record a positive pitch value — so the Angels have bumped his slider usage by 10% over last year to 46.5%.
Jaime Barria's 81 mph Slider swoops under the bat of Ronald Guzman. pic.twitter.com/Erzm0N9w6m
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) September 6, 2018
On a per-pitch basis, the offering has been significantly less effective than it was in 2018, but it still shows a positive net return.
As Barria’s command continues to improve, so too will his overall profile (career 4.91 FIP, 4.99 xFIP), but he’s polished and consistent enough to serve as a back-end starter for quite some time.
The Giants will send out Logan Webb, who grew up as an Oakland A’s fan, to face his childhood team in his second career start.
Webb has had an interesting path through the minor leagues, including his recovery from Tommy John Surgery and an 80 game suspension for PEDs. He owns two plus-pitches, a big fastball (touches 98 mph) and hard curveball (82-85 mph), both of which were working in his MLB debut:
Logan Webb has brought the 🧀 to his #MLB debut.
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) August 18, 2019
The 22-year-old earned a promotion to the big leagues after eight dominant starts between Double-A and Triple-A this year, where he recorded 54 strikeouts against 12 walks in 48 innings.
Oakland starter Brett Anderson is completely at the mercy of his defense, with a major league-low 12.2% strikeout rate. Despite a 4.06 ERA, Anderson has been a bit lucky (4.64 FIP and 4.83 xFIP) thanks to a .273 batting average on balls in play (.308 career).
Steamer projects Logan Webb for a 4.34 FIP for the remainder of 2019, so the Giants have the better pitch in this matchup. It’s just a question of whether Webb is distracted by the thought of playing against his favorite team.
Bets (so far) for August 25
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+102) Game Moneyline
- Los Angeles Angels (+180) Game Moneyline
- NY Yankees (+158) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-112) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+145) Game Moneyline
- Under 10.5 (-113), Angels at Astros
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/25
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.