Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 11: Fade Adam Plutko, Indians vs. Angels?


David Berding, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Adam Plutko

Sep 11, 2019, 12:00 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet the Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Angels (8:07 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

With three straight wins, the Cleveland Indians (85-61), are now within a half-game of the Oakland Athletics (85-60) for the second AL Wild Card spot.

FanGraphs gives the Indians a 47% of making the playoffs – compared to an 83.6% chance for Tampa Bay, and a 69.7% chance for Oakland.

None of the three teams will play the rest of the way, so they’ll all need to take care of business independently of one another; a factor which favors Oakland, who has the 25th-hardest schedule over the next few weeks.

The Rays (11th) have the most challenging schedule amongst the group of three teams, so perhaps there is an opportunity for the Indians (18th) to make up some ground.

Every win matters – can they make it four in a row on Wednesday?

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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