MLB Expert Picks for Tuesday: Can Stephen Strasburg Quiet the Twins’ Offense?
Jason Getz, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Stephen Strasburg.
- Our MLB staffers detail their favorite bets for Wednesday, September 11 including Braves vs. Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
Mark Gallant: Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins
Stephen Strasburg (16-6, 3.50 ERA) vs. Martin Perez (10-6, 4.75 ERA)
- Nationals Moneyline: -150
- Twins Moneyline: +135
- Over/Under: 10
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
All odds above as of Tuesday at 2:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
This time of year, some days will feel like summer, some will feel like autumn – fall to the layperson. In Minnesota tonight, the air is going to have a raw, fall-type feeling to it. Per FantasyLabs, the Weather Rating will be a mere 30 – second lowest of the slate behind Seattle, which is typically quite low in the first place.
Winds are blowing in from left-center at 11 mph, temps will be in the mid-60s and it will be cloudy with a chance of rain. Despite these conditions and the fact that Stephen Strasburg is pitching for the Nats, the over/under is 10. Too high in my opinion!
I took this total last night expecting it to fall, but it hasn’t yet. The juice is heading towards the under so act fast to get the best of the line
The PICK: Under 10 (-115)
Danny Donahue: Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
Dallas Keuchel (7-5, 3.47 ERA) vs. Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.31 ERA)
- Braves Moneyline: -131
- Phillies Moneyline: +121
- Over/Under: 9.5
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
In the second half of the season, public bettors tend to latch onto the top teams in the league, which really isn’t too surprising. It does mean, though, that bettors can find value by fading the league’s best, especially when they play against divisional opponents — who should benefit from the added familiarity.
Teams at .600 or better in the second half of the season getting at least 80% of bets (the Braves are at 82%) have gone 106-91 since 2005 when playing within their division. That record, however, has lost 32.9 units.
Conversely, fading such teams has won 57.0 units for a 28.9% ROI.
The PICK: Phillies +121
Sean Zerillo: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
Zach Davies (9-7, 3.69 ERA) vs. Pablo Lopez (5-8, 4.75 ERA)
- Brewers Moneyline: -142
- Marlins Moneyline: +131
- Over/Under: 8
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
I projected the Marlins moneyline at +107 in this game, and still see around 25 cents worth of line value on this home underdog.
To me, they clearly have the better pitcher, despite Pablo Lopez having an ERA that is more than a run higher than that of his opponent:
Amongst pitchers who have thrown more than 100 innings this season, Davies has the seventh-worst strikeout minus walk rate – just below Andrew Cashner; and the fifth-lowest swinging strike rate – below Brett Anderson and Mike Leake.
This Brewers lineup also packs significantly less punch than it did even a week ago, losing its two best home run threats (and left-handed bats) in Mike Moustakas and Christian Yelich to injuries.
The Marlins probably should have won a game in this series already – but they have been miserable with runners in scoring position the past two nights.
In an 8-3 loss on Monday, they went 4 for 14 with runners in scoring position, stranding 14 runners on base. In Tuesday’s 4-3 loss, they went 2 for 11 with runners in scoring position, while stranding eight baserunners to the Brewers’ four.
Since the start of September, the Marlins offense ranks 12th, one spot ahead of the Brewers in wRC+.
I played Miami in both halves of the game, but actually show them as a small 51% favorite in the first five innings (F5) – and would prefer that play at the same number.
The PICK: Miami Marlins F5 Moneyline