Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 13: Will Brendan McKay Stay Poised vs. Lauer, Padres?
Gregory J. Fisher, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Brendan McKay
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet Diamondbacks-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET) and Rays-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Astros (77-41) and White Sox (52-64) will play a doubleheader on Tuesday — the 25th doubleheader of the 2019 season and the sixth of eight doubleheaders scheduled for August.
Teams who have won the first game of the doubleheader this season are 15-9 in Game Two, and historically playing the chalk in Game Two is the profitable play – so the White Sox could be in deeper water than they already are while going up against both Zack Greinke and Gerrit Cole today.
Though I liked the under in the rained out White Sox -Astros game for Monday, which features the same starters as in Game One on Tuesday, I’m not playing that total with both offenses on full rest – but I might look to play Cole and the Astros to get the sweep provided that Greinke takes Game One as a big favorite.
After three home runs in a doubleheader yesterday, I think it’s safe to say that Gleyber Torres, and not Peter Angelos, now owns the Orioles:
Look at what Torres has accomplished in just 66 plate appearances this season against his division rival:
Gleyber Torres vs. Baltimore, 2019:
🔥 .414 BA
🔥 .485 OBP
🔥 1.138 SLG
🔥 20 R
🔥 3 2B
🔥 13 HR
🔥 20 RBI
He's done all this in just 16 games 😳 pic.twitter.com/CQ7vEkUBNX
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) August 13, 2019
He’s slowly breaking Orioles announcer Gary Thorne in the process:
The Yankees have played the Orioles 17 times this season, and outfielder Gleyber Torres has 13 HR in those games — the most ever hit against a single opponent in the divisional era.
Please pray for O’s announcer Gary Thorne, who is slowly losing his mindpic.twitter.com/EO7JQSSnGM
— Kendall Baker (@TheKendallBaker) August 13, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-2, and I finished up 0.04 units for the day.
It was a positive in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 10 cents against the Rays moneyline (+120 to +110), five cents against the Diamondbacks moneyline (+106 to +101), and a couple of pennies against the two totals that I played.
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, August 13
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and x moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Royals and Twins as full-game plays. The model also likes the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles and Twins, in addition to the Giants as F5 plays.
I’m going to stay the course with Zac Gallen, who I last featured on August 7, and the Diamondbacks.
He had the full arsenal on display in his debut with Arizona, allowing one hit and three walks against six strikeouts over five shutout innings:
Zac Gallen, 96mph Fastball and 88mph Changeup, Overlay.
Well damn. pic.twitter.com/zQ5AfLorpX
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2019
He shouldn’t have a major issue bringing the fastball and changeup into Coors Field.
I’m more concerned about the curveball and slider translating appropriately, as Gallen could have difficulty getting depth on his breaking pitches at the higher altitude in Denver:
Zac Gallen's big curveball + slow motion pic.twitter.com/HmDAMPFqPC
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) August 8, 2019
It’s his first start in Coors Field, and now pitching in the NL West it won’t be his last, but I show Gallen and the Diamondbacks as a small favorite tonight and I’m happy to take them at plus-money for the second consecutive day.
Since it’s Gallen’s first outing in Coors, it stopped me from also playing the F5 moneyline. But with a 9-26 record and -84 run differential since the beginning of July, few teams in baseball are playing as poorly as the Rockies right now.
I was happy to get the Tampa Bay Rays at a value price once again before their lined moved. If you have followed this column this season, you might have noticed that I play the Rays more frequently than other teams and that the closing line generally moves in their direction.
A couple of former lefty first-round picks will go head to head in that matchup, with Brendan McKay facing Eric Lauer.
After only 39 minor league games, McKay has looked super polished over six starts in the majors, with a 33:3 strikeout to walk ratio in 29.2 innings. He’s been as cool as a cucumber in big spots too:
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) July 5, 2019
The Minnesota Twins F5 play is more about avoiding Josh Hader (who hasn’t pitched since August 9) and thinking that the Twins can outslug the Brewers than trusting Martin Perez, whose velocity and other skills have eroded throughout this season.
The Brewers have been a bottom 20 offense against lefties this season, and rank 29th with a 76 wRC+ against lefties since the beginning of July.
The Twins have had a top-five offense this season against lefties and righties, and have been extremely consistent all season.
Brewers starter Chase Anderson also sports a 3.70 ERA, as compared to a 4.33 FIP and 4.94 xFIP, though he’s a pitcher who has outpitched his underlying metrics for his entire career (3.86 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 4.45 xFIP).
As for the Athletics, they remain an automatic play for me against left-handed starters so long as the odds are reasonable. They are 21-9 (+10 units) vs. southpaws in 2019 and 40-18 (+18 units) dating back to July of 2018.
Bets (So Far) for August 13
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+115) Game Moneyline
- Minnesota Twins (+135) F5 Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+114) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics Team Total, Over 3.5 (-125)
- Tampa Bay Rays (-107) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/13
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.