Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/3: Pitchers Duel Brewing in LA?
Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including whether bettors can expect that Astros to win back-to-back games at Coors Field.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Astros and Rockies combined for 17 runs in Houston’s 9-8 win on Tuesday, and the under in Denver is now 22-33 (40%, -$1,211, -22% ROI) since the start of the 2019 season — losing by an average margin of 1.97 runs.
Between the 2017-2018 MLB seasons, under bets at Coors Field cashed 58.6% of the time (+$2,501, 14.4% ROI), but covered by an average margin of only 0.2 runs.
I’ll be avoiding any under bets in Rockies home games for the time being and especially today with the Astros’ contact-heavy offense facing a rookie pitcher.
If you missed the end of the Diamondbacks-Dodgers game on Tuesday, you missed a literal walk-off win:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines and 0-3 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 3-2, and I finished up 0.59 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I was down a penny against the three moneylines that I played and lost 10 cents against one total.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, July 3
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Astros, Blue Jays and Mets as full-game plays. The model also likes the Astros, in addition to the Braves, Orioles and Reds as F5 plays.
Let’s start with the Astros and Wade Miley, one of my favorite pitchers to back as his teams are 23-10 (69.7*%) in his starts over the past two seasons.
Further, he’s 16-2 as a favorite (+$849, 47.2% ROI), with his team winning by an average margin of 3.78 runs.
He continues to induce soft contact with his cutter, a repertoire change that tracks with this moneyline run:
Peter Lambert has displayed good command for the Rockies in his first five MLB starts, with 18 strikeouts against four walks in 24.2 innings.
But his whiff rate is paltry (7.3%) and he’s giving up a ton of line drives (26%) leading to a 91.1 mph average exit velocity, .400 xwOBA and .306 xBA against — each ranking in the bottom 4% amongst all pitchers.
Lambert has good pitchability and is certainly going to throw strikes, but the Astros aren’t going to miss them. As a team, they rank second behind the Angels with an 18.2% strikeout rate.
Dylan Cease will make his MLB debut for the White Sox this afternoon in the first game of a doubleheader against the Tigers.
Acquired in the Jose Quintana trade with the Cubs, Cease owns a 70-grade fastball, with the ability to touch triple-digits and a plus-plus curveball — though he’ll likely have consistently high walk rates.
He will go against Daniel Norris, a lefty who has a pretty distinctive trend when it comes to times through the order. Take a look at how it breaks down:
- First Plate Appearance vs. Norris: .233/.295/.372 (.667 OPS), 47 BB, 138 K
- Second Plate Appearance vs. Norris: .290/.345/.509 (.854 OPS), 42 BB, 107 K
- Third Plate Appearance vs. Norris: .313/.369/.517 (.886 OPS), 25 BB, 58 K
The White Sox could be worth a live play if the game is still tied after Norris has already turned over the lineup one time.
Bets (So Far) for July 3
- Houston Astros (-131) Game Moneyline
- Under 10 (-120), Yankees at Mets
- Under 10.5 (-120), Brewers at Reds
- Under 8.5 (-115), Diamondbacks at Dodgers
- Under 9.5 (-115), Cardinals at Mariners
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/3
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.