MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/20: Can Andrew Suarez Help Giants’ Rotation vs. Braves?


Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andrew Suarez

May 20, 2019, 07:15 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on May 20 with his model below, and highlights Mets-Nationals (7:10 p.m. ET) and Braves-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. isn’t in the Blue Jays lineup today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy his talent for a brief moment.

The recently turned 20-year-old hit two home runs over the weekend in Chicago. The first was pushed over the center field wall on a missed catch attempt by Leury Garcia.

On Sunday, Vlad hit a go-ahead home run in a tie game on a 94 mph tailing fastball that a majority of hitters would have yanked foul if they had made contact at all:

After a slow start, Vlad Jr. now has four home runs, and is quickly gaining in the AL Rookie of the Year race on the Red Sox Michael Chavis, who hit his ninth home run of the season on Monday afternoon against Toronto:

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines, and 0-3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My tracked plays went 2-4, and I was down 1.02 units for the day.

Sunday was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 37 cents on the Yankees moneyline (+125 to -112), 18 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+123 to +105), 12 cents on the Reds moneyline (+167 to +155), 8 cents on the Mariners F5 moneyline (-107 to -115), but lost 12 cents on the Astros moneyline (+158 to +170)

On Deck for Monday, May 20

All odds as of Monday morning (view live odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday, May 20. 

The model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Monday. 

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