MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/20: Can Andrew Suarez Help Giants’ Rotation vs. Braves?
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andrew Suarez
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 20 with his model below, and highlights Mets-Nationals (7:10 p.m. ET) and Braves-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Vlad Guerrero Jr. isn’t in the Blue Jays lineup today, but that doesn’t mean we can’t enjoy his talent for a brief moment.
The recently turned 20-year-old hit two home runs over the weekend in Chicago. The first was pushed over the center field wall on a missed catch attempt by Leury Garcia.
On Sunday, Vlad hit a go-ahead home run in a tie game on a 94 mph tailing fastball that a majority of hitters would have yanked foul if they had made contact at all:
After a slow start, Vlad Jr. now has four home runs, and is quickly gaining in the AL Rookie of the Year race on the Red Sox Michael Chavis, who hit his ninth home run of the season on Monday afternoon against Toronto:
Taking the show north of the border. pic.twitter.com/YcWKMqmjHU
— Boston Red Sox (@RedSox) May 20, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines, and 0-3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 2-4, and I was down 1.02 units for the day.
Sunday was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 37 cents on the Yankees moneyline (+125 to -112), 18 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+123 to +105), 12 cents on the Reds moneyline (+167 to +155), 8 cents on the Mariners F5 moneyline (-107 to -115), but lost 12 cents on the Astros moneyline (+158 to +170)
On Deck for Monday, May 20
The model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Monday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and Toronto Blue Jays as the full-game plays. It also likes the Blue Jays and Twins as F5 plays.
I put the Blue Jays projection on Twitter before the game, but was never interested in making that play, and thankfully I didn’t (see the Chavis home run above).
The Twins opened as a -125 favorite at the Angels before the line flipped towards the home team, leaving Minnesota as a small road underdog. As of writing, over 70% of the moneyline tickets are on the Twins, but over 50% of the cash is behind the Angels, part of the reason for that line reversal.
Though I’m likely going against the professionals on this one, I do have Minnesota favored in my projections and see an edge on them at +110 or better.
Jake Odorizzi has pitched well in 2019, while increasing his swinging strike rate by 1.5% (from 10.1% career). His average fastball velocity is also up, finishing September of 2018 at 92.1 mph, before trending up to 93.98 mph in his May 2019 outings. His slider and sinker have experienced comparable 1.5 mph velocity gains.
It’s worth noting that Odorizzi faced the Angels in his last start and gave up two home runs with two walks and three strikeouts in an 8-7 win.
The Angels will be using an opener, Taylor Cole, ahead of Felix Pena on Monday. The Angels have used Luke Bard and Cam Bedrosian ahead of Pena and Jaime Barria this season, and are considering expanding further upon that strategy. It’s likely a more optimal approach for the Angels, but I still see the Twins as a 51% favorite on Monday.
The Mets will be using Tyler Bashlor as an opener today against the Nationals. If the Mets can keep the game close, I’m expecting that Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman and Edwin Diaz will be heavily involved. If not, they’ll likely turn to Wilmer Font to be a mop-up man; and the game could get ugly from there.
The Mets have lost five straight games and were just swept on the road by the Marlins, failing to score a run for the past two days. They’re a good spot play today at home here at big odds, and are facing a pitcher that they’ve seen three times already this season, Patrick Corbin.
However, Corbin dominated this Mets team on May 15 (8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 11 K), his third straight quality start against them. I have the Mets as a slight underdog, but see this game as more of a 49% coin-flip at home if they can keep it competitive and optimize their best relief pitchers to get through nine innings.
The Mets offense just needs to get it going against Corbin, or literally anyone.
Lefty Andrew Suarez will make his return to the Giants rotation tonight. The 26-year-old former second-round pick out of the University of Miami was effective if unspectacular in 2018, pitching to a 4.49 ERA, 4.30 FIP and 3.77 xFIP over 160 innings pitched.
Suarez is a five-pitch guy — four-seam 36%, slider 24%, sinker 15%, curveball 13% and changeup 12% — who gets ahead of hitters (62% first pitch strikes in 2018) and generates groundballs (51%) but who struggles to get whiffs (7.3% swinging strike rate) especially inside of the zone (90% zone contact rate).
The slider is the only pitch that consistently generates whiffs:
Otherwise, Suarez relies on changing speeds, nibbling at the outer edges of the zone, and occasionally getting batters to swing over his curveball.
I’m curious if Suarez will choose to lean on the slider a bit more at some point. Either way, the Giants took sharp action this morning, and though the number touched as high as +155 before crashing down after professional resistance, I still see value down to +115.
Bets (So Far) for May 20
- Minnesota Twins (+113) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (+137) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+123) Game Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/20
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.