MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/15: Double Down on Oakland’s Bats?

Jun 15, 2019 7:00 PM EDT
Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (10).

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on June 15 with his model below and highlights Rays-Angels (1:10 p.m. ET) and Mets-Cardinals (7:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Astros super-rookie Yordan Alvarez hit another mammoth home run last night:

Tragedy also struck for Rockies moneyline backers:

San Diego won a game that they had a 0.2% chance of winning, a stunning fact which our app and FanGraphs agreed upon.

We have a new candidate for the worst beat of the season.


Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).

My plays went 2-8, and I finished down 3.54 units for the day.

It’s no consolation during this extended rough stretch, but another positive day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV) keeps my faith strong. 

I gained 32 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, the Under in Oakland moved from 9.5 to 9.0, and the under in Cincinnati dropped from 10.0 to 9.0.

I only truly missed on the Nationals over, which dropped from 7.5 to 7.0; and of course, that was one of my two winners on Friday.

MLB Betting Model for Saturday, June 15

All odds as of Saturday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Saturday.

Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).

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