Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Oakland Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (10).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 15 with his model below and highlights Rays-Angels (1:10 p.m. ET) and Mets-Cardinals (7:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Astros super-rookie Yordan Alvarez hit another mammoth home run last night:
Tragedy also struck for Rockies moneyline backers:
San Diego won a game that they had a 0.2% chance of winning, a stunning fact which our app and FanGraphs agreed upon.
We have a new candidate for the worst beat of the season.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-2 against full-game moneylines and 1-3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 2-8, and I finished down 3.54 units for the day.
It’s no consolation during this extended rough stretch, but another positive day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV) keeps my faith strong.
I gained 32 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, the Under in Oakland moved from 9.5 to 9.0, and the under in Cincinnati dropped from 10.0 to 9.0.
I only truly missed on the Nationals over, which dropped from 7.5 to 7.0; and of course, that was one of my two winners on Friday.
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, June 15
Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).