Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/20: Can You Trust Bundy in Seattle?
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dylan Bundy
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 20 with his model below and highlights Indians-Rangers (2:05 p.m. ET) and Orioles-Mariners (10:10 p.m ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
One day after breaking his nose in batting practice, Max Scherzer took the mound with three different colored eyes and put on a dominant performance; striking out 10 batters over seven shutout innings as though nothing ever happened.
King Max, The Broken. 10th K. pic.twitter.com/VcCcYYiZt0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 20, 2019
In Triple-A, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailrRiders might have had the strangest walk-off win of the 2019 season, thanks to some help from Norfolk’s defense.
OH MY GOSH.
Breyvic Valera hits a game-tying double to right in the bottom of the 10th.
Norfolk right fielder Anderson Feliz didn’t know the score of the game and, at first, didn’t play the ball, and then, threw it into the stands.
The RailRiders win, 7-6. pic.twitter.com/In6zhGdxmu
— Conor Foley (@RailRidersTT) June 20, 2019
For me, it was reminiscent of the time that Mets outfielder Benny Agbayani forgot the number of outs and had to de-gift a souvenir which he had just given to a young fan.
Thankfully, that wasn’t Agbayani’s most memorable moment as a Met (though it was certainly his Mets’iest moment).
He redeemed himself two months later in the playoffs when he launched a walk-off home run in the 13th inning of Game 3 in the NLDS.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-4 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 0-5, and I finished down 2.73 units for the day. It was, however, a completely positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 17 cents against the Rays F5 moneyline (-135 to -154), 12 cents against the Phillies moneyline (+155 to +143), 4 cents against the Rangers moneyline (+110 to +106), and 5 cents against the under that I played.
MLB Betting Model for Thursday, June 20
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Texas Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Orioles, in addition to the Arizona Diamondbacks, as F5 plays.
I have discussed Rangers lefty Mike Minor on multiple occasions this season, but I should note that he has outpitched his fielding independent metrics, with a 2.63 ERA likely to regress towards his 3.72 FIP and 4.02 XFIP.
After a strong start to the season, his performance has already begun to drop off, as evidenced by the rolling expected wOBA against him:
Minor’s average fastball velocity sat at 93.9 mph in April, but it’s down to 92.8 mph in June.
The Rangers will also likely be in the role of a public underdog on Thursday, and if they are I certainly won’t be looking to take them.
Unpopular favorites (receiving fewer than 50% of bets) had won at a 61% rate prior to Wednesday when they added another 3-0 day to the ledger.
Baltimore is actually an interesting play to me on Thursday. Wade LeBlanc, who will “bulk” for Seattle on Thursday after an opener, is one of my favorite pitchers to fade, as most of his pitching metrics are in the bottom 2-4% amongst all pitchers.
The lowlights include a .310 expected batting average, a .548 expected slugging percentage, and an average exit velocity allowed of 91.3 mph, 4 mph above his career average.
Dylan Bundy has pitched effectively for Baltimore, and his .308 xwOBA is a career best.
Bundy has displayed solid command, striking out over a batter per inning with three times the number of strikeouts as walks. His issue has always been the home run ball; allowing 1.71 home runs per nine innings during his career.
He’s allowed 15 home runs in 14 starts this season and allowed 41 in 31 starts in 2018.
When it’s working, Bundy’s slider is a plus pitch:
Dylan Bundy, Disgusting 83mph Slider. 😲 pic.twitter.com/gk9c0tKOBh
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 28, 2019
It has earned a pitch value of +5.4 in 2019 with a 24% swinging strike rate. For Bundy’s career, batters have swung at his sliders outside of the zone 46% of the time.
However, it’s been a much more effective pitch against righties than lefties, leaving Bundy with a distinct platoon split: career .317 wOBA, 3.77 K/BB vs. righties; .350 wOBA, 2.2 K/BB vs. lefties.
The Mariners have the highest flyball percentage in baseball (41.4%) and rank second in home runs behind Minnesota, which has the second highest flyball rate.
The over in that game looks a bit tasty, I’m just unsure as of yet if I’m willing to side with the Orioles, too.
Bets (So Far) for June 20
- Under 10.5 (-112), LA Angels at Toronto
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/20
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.