MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/19: Backing the Astros and Yankees as Underdogs
Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chad Green
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 19 with his model below, and highlights Red Sox-Astros (1:05 p.m. ET) and Mariners-Twins (4:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
In an effort to get the spreadsheet out as quickly as possible before the early games today, there’s no deep dive on any pitchers – just some game notes below.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-1 against full-game moneylines, and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 2-0, and I was up 0.75 units for the day.
Saturday was actually a negative day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost a couple of pennies on the Astros line (-112 to -110) but also lost 10 cents on the under that played (-110 to +100).
On Deck for Sunday, May 19
The model recommends four full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Sunday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles, Cincinnati Reds, Houston Astros, and New York Yankees as the full-game plays. It also likes the Reds, Orioles, and Yankees, in addition to the St. Louis Cardinals as F5 plays.
I played the Rockies on the moneyline, as both their full game and F5 lines would have been model plays at open, but they took early action from professionals. I still see slight value at around +115.
I’ll actually be skipping the Cardinals on the F5 moneyline; you would have to lay a lot of juice and this is Jack Flaherty’s first exposure to this lefty-heavy Texas lineup.
Baltimore is a team that I typically skip, so you can scratch them off too after professional steam on Cleveland moved that line quickly
I took each of the Reds, Astros, and Yankees at plus-money. It’s a rare opportunity to get the Astros and Yankees as underdogs on the same day, but Chris Sale is coming off of a monstrous 17 strikeout performance where he looked unhittable in his last outing.
However, the Astros and Reds both rank in the top 5 in wOBA against left-handed pitching, and i’ll grab each at odds of over +150. The over is also receiving action in that Astros – Red Sox game, a positive sign that Houston will be able to score against Sale.
The Yankees are throwing a bullpen day today led by Chad Green. I actually like them a bit in this spot as a home underdog, and would regret not playing it despite their having to go against Tampa Bay.
I also took the Mariners on the F5 moneyline with Yusei Kikuchi, which was close to being a 4% play, and Oakland on the F5 runline, as they are facing another left-handed starting pitcher.
Bets (So Far) for May 19
- Cincinnati Reds (+167) Game Moneyline
- Colorado Rockies (+123) Game Moneyline
- Houston Astros (+158) Game Moneyline
- New York Yankees (+125) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-0.5, -130) F5 Runline
- Seattle Mariners (-107) F5 Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/19
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.