Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/24: Back Greinke or Kershaw in D’Backs-Dodgers Matchup?
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Zack Greinke
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 24 with his model below and highlights Dodgers-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET) and Giants-Rockies (10:05 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
There were a lot of record-breaking home runs on Sunday.
We broke team rookie records:
It's June. pic.twitter.com/rIMEdnT58i
— MLB (@MLB) June 23, 2019
We had rookies breaking a league record as a group:
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 23, 2019
And teams smashing franchise records:
— MLB Stats (@MLBStats) June 23, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-3 against full-game moneylines and 4-4 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 2-3-1, and I finished down 0.59 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 35 cents against the Dodgers F5 spread (-135 to -170), five cents against the Braves moneyline, and saw the over that I played rise from 9.0 to 9.5, but the two unders that I played also went up by half of a run each.
MLB Betting Model for Monday, June 24
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Giants, and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Blue Jays and White Sox, in addition to the Phillies and Royals as F5 plays.
It’s difficult to make any kind of an argument for Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) going against the Yankees. In four starts in June he has recorded just nine strikeouts against 12 walks while allowing 24 runs in 18 innings.
Though I also show an edge on the under in that game, I’ll pass completely.
Brad Keller (Royals) has shown better control of the strike zone in June (20 K, 6 BB in 26 IP) after working through his mechanics during a rough April and May (43 K, 41 BB in 64 IP).
In June his zone rate has increased by 8.5%, his first pitch strike rate has increased by 5.5%, and batters are swinging at his pitches outside of the zone 5% more frequently.
However, Cleveland and their bats have been scorching of late (14-6, 5.6 runs per game in June) and the Kansas City lineup thins out quickly.
The Royals averaged 4.4 runs per game between April and May, but are down to 3.8 runs per game in June. Keller is probably a nice value in the first five innings (and maybe a sneaky DFS play in a small slate), and I might take a look at the under if it goes to 10.5.
The White Sox and Lucas Giolito feel like a value trap again on Monday. Giolito was a trap play against the Cubs on June 19, but he did strike out nine batters despite allowing six runs and three home runs.
He owns a 14.5% swinging strike rate on the season, and that number is up to 19.5% in his past five starts. His swinging strike rate, strikeout rate, and ERA continue to trend in the right directions:
Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox) is no slouch either.
He owns the highest first-pitch strike rate (65%) and swinging strike rate (12%) of his career, and has averaged nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings since the beginning of last season.
The White Sox offense also strikes out more than 25% of the time, ranking 27th in MLB.
I project both of these pitchers at 7.0 strikeouts and made a small play on over 6.5 strikeouts for each.
Drew Pomeranz (Giants) has an inflated stat line, thanks to three separate starts in which he’s allowed seven or more runs.
Even his 6.01 FIP and 4.71 xFIP show a bit of a disagreement with one another, due to a .359 BABIP, and 2.3 home runs allowed per nine innings on a 24% home run to flyball rate.
His 7.09 ERA is certainly due to regress along with those batted ball metrics, but the question is by how much. If you removed the three blowouts, Pomeranz’s ERA is around 3.75 in his other outings.
He averages close to 10 strikeouts per nine innings but has been extremely boom or bust.
My favorite bet on Monday is the Diamondbacks at plus-money, with Zack Greinke facing Clayton Kershaw.
Those linked pieces above detail a bunch of reasons as to why the Diamondbacks are a strong play tonight.
A quick summary of the findings from myself and my colleagues:
- Greinke is extremely consistent, and one of the most profitable active pitchers in baseball on the half moneyline (102-44-26).
- Greinke is 5-0 as a home underdog since 2017 (24-13 as a favorite).
- Kershaw owns poor splits at Chase field and is just 7-9 as a favorite there.
- The Diamondbacks hit lefties well, ranking in the top five in wRC+, wOBA and ISO, and in the bottom five in strikeout rate.
Just be prepared for a long night, even if Greinke is pitching well:
Zack Greinke taking over 2 minutes between pitches. 👶🧓👴⌛️ pic.twitter.com/loWi4JlHGY
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 11, 2019
Bets (So Far) for June 24
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) Game Moneyline
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) F5 Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+100) Game Moneyline
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-115)
- Lucas Giolito, Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/24
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.