MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/4: Can Devin Smeltzer Extend AL Central Lead for Twins?
Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Devin Smeltzer
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 4 with his model below and highlights Mets-Giants (7:10 p.m. ET) and Twins-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Seattle Mariners have been the worst defensive team in baseball this season:
Team Leaders in Defensive Runs Saved
Bottom 2 teams
— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) June 3, 2019
On Monday, they recorded perhaps the ugliest fielder’s choice in the history of baseball:
Welp, we’ve never seen anything like this before. pic.twitter.com/F3Kfd8wc8R
— Cut4 (@Cut4) June 4, 2019
It’s no wonder why the Mariners have gone 12-36 after a 13-2 start.
I’m holding an Over 71.5 ticket on Seattle’s season win total. That was looking safe for a couple of weeks, and now they’re at a 65-win pace and look dead in the water.
Jay Bruce was traded to the Phillies on Sunday. This Mariners roster will look very different in the near future.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-0 against moneylines for the first five (F5) innings.
My tracked plays went 2-2 and I finished even for the day.
Monday was a mostly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 22 cents on the Arizona F5 moneyline (+139 to +117) but lost 7 cents on the Angels moneyline (+145 to +152).
I also gained 11 cents on the San Diego over that I played (-105 to -116) and saw Houston’s under drop from 10.0 to 9.5
On Deck for Tuesday, June 4
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Miami Marlins, Minnesota Twins and Toronto Blue Jays as full-game plays. It also likes those same three teams, in addition to the New York Mets as F5 plays.
I’ll skip the Marlins at the Brewers and the Blue Jays hosting the Yankees with Clayton Richard. I’ll back the Mets in the first half, and the Twins over the full game.
After a couple of down seasons, Madison Bumgarner is seemingly in the midst of a bounce-back campaign in 2019 with an average fastball velocity (92.1 mph) at its highest mark since 2015. He also owns his best swinging strike rate (11.5%), strikeout minus walk percentage (19.6%) and FIP (3.59) since 2016.
However, batted ball data doesn’t see much difference in his performance over the past few seasons (xwOBA marks of .318, .321, .325 since 2017) and Bumgarner’s hard hit rate (44%) is currently the highest it’s been over that span.
Hitters have averaged an exit velocity of 89.5 mph on the 214 batted balls against Bumgarner in 2019 — 1.7 mph higher than in each of the past two seasons.
He’s doing a better job of controlling the strike zone, but still getting hit very hard when he makes mistakes.
Noah Syndergaard’s 4.90 ERA is misleading. He’s pitched to a 3.62 FIP and 3.77 xFIP, and his own batted ball data (.278 xWOBA) lines up with his recent seasons (.268, .279, .266, .265 dating back from 2018 to 2015).
As for the Twins, they own the best winning percentage (.690) and run differential in baseball (+109) as they head into a crucial three game series with the preseason AL Central favorite Cleveland Indians.
The Twins are public underdogs in the first game of the series with Devin Smeltzer going against the emerging Shane Bieber, receiving more than 70% of the moneyline cash and tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here).
Though I have Minnesota as the favorite in both halves of the game, I laid off playing both ends due to Cleveland having taken some sharp action.
I took slightly better odds over the full game.
Smeltzer was a return piece in the Brian Dozier trade last season. He was flawless in his major-league debut, tossing six shutout innings with seven strikeouts against the Brewers while allowing just three hits and no walks.
In that start he threw a four-seam fastball (89 mph, 46%), changeup (84 mph, 32%) and curveball (77 mph, 22%)
The off-speed pitch was particularly effective, showing low spin and tremendous late fade:
Devin Smeltzer's fantastic changeup in ultra slow-motion. pic.twitter.com/CRiojUOF1P
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) May 29, 2019
I have the Dodgers, Rays and Red Sox all listed as road favorites of greater than 60%, winning their games today by 1.16, 2.0 and 1.25 runs respectively.
Tampa Bay is now 41-22 (+1,670, 26.5% ROI) against the spread vs. left-handed starters since the beginning of last season. The Rays are 19-12 as a favorite with a 33% ROI (+$1,033).
The Dodgers are 22-7 since the start of May with a +59 run differential, a margin of more than 2.0 runs per game.
Similarly, after posting a negative run differential in both March and April, the Red Sox are 17-12 with a +58 run differential since.
I always prefer to take a full-game spread with road teams since they’re guaranteed to bat in the ninth inning even with a lead.
Bets (So Far) for June 4
- Boston Red Sox (-1.5, -122) Game Spread
- Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5, -130) Game Spread
- Minnesota Twins (+122) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-125) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -155) Game Spread
- Under 11, Rockies at Chicago Cubs
- Under 11, Baltimore at Texas
- Under 10.5, Boston at Kansas City
- Under 9.5, Los Angeles at Arizona
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/4
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.