Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 8/8: Should Bettors Trust MadBum as a Home Underdog?
May 7, 2019; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) walks off the mound at the end of the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Thursday's slate of games, including how to bet Yankees-Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
With a 52-65 expected record, the Blue Jays (47-70) have played slightly better than you would expect for a team with the fourth-fewest wins in MLB, thanks to an unlucky 11-19 record in one-run games.
Since the All-Star Break, the Blue Jays are 13-13 with a +21 run differential, and outside of a 17-38 run through May and June, they have played .500 baseball in 2019.
The Yankees (75-39) come into Thursday on an eight-game winning streak, despite suffering numerous injuries to the heart of their lineup in recent weeks. Gleyber Torres, DJ Lemahieu and Austin Romine are the only position players who have spent the entire 2019 season on the Yankees 25-man active roster, and Torres suffered a “core issue” (which may or may not be a sports hernia) on Wednesday.
The Yankees aren’t even the hottest baseball team in New York at the moment.
That would be the New York Mets, who have won six games in a row and 12 out of their past 13, placing them one-half game off of the NL Wild Card pace.
The New York Mets are 19-6 since the MLB All-Star break…
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) August 7, 2019
Admittedly, this run will only setup Mets fan for future disappointment, but like always with this team, it’s going to be one hell of a ride while it lasts.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-5 against full-game moneylines and 1-5-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 4-4-2, and I finished down 0.04 units for the day.
It was a generally positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 50 cents overall against the seven sides that I played, gaining as much as 30 cents against Arizona’s F5 moneyline (-125 to -155) and none of the three totals moved off of my number.
MLB Betting Model for Thursday, August 8
Today, the model recommends four full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Giants, Marlins and Padres as full-game plays. The model also likes the Blue Jays and Marlins as F5 plays.
Thomas Pannone isn’t a pitcher with big stuff that you get excited to bet on. The southpaw doesn’t have significant velocity, nor does he throw a plus-pitch.
He sits 89-91 mph with his fastball, has a curveball that he can throw in the zone for strikes or out of the zone for whiffs and an average changeup that he isn’t afraid to mix in, but his overall command is just average.
He was an outstanding pitcher in the minor leagues (532.2 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 558 strikeouts) but the stuff hasn’t translated as well to the majors thus far (4.92 FIP, 5.47 xFIP), while mostly working out of the bullpen in 2018.
He will operate as a starter for the fourth consecutive occasion on Thursday and is coming off of two strong efforts against the Royals (6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K), and Orioles (6 IP, 4 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 9 K).
When he’s sharp, Pannone is a steady pitcher who can fill out the back end of a rotation:
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) April 14, 2019
The Yankees batted Cameron Maybin in the fifth spot against lefty John Means on Wednesday, and with all of their current injuries, their offense is looking as depleted as it did in April.
Though I picked Madison Bumgarner and the Giants against the Phillies on Thursday, Bumgarner is going to have to overcome a bad history as a home underdog.
He is 7-14 in this spot, and a consistent $100 bettor would be down $589 if they bet on Bumgarner in all 21 of those starts.
Conversely, Jon Gray of the Colorado Rockies has been significantly more profitable at home, which aligns with my Padres wager:
- Home: 33-21, +$634, 11.7% ROI
- Visitor: 24-34, -$795, -13.7% ROI
Eric Lauer is coming off an impressive outing against the Dodgers, displaying what was easily hist best average fastball velocity (93.4 mph) of his career.
Lauer didn’t throw a slider this season (in yellow, below) until June 21, but it has become a regular part of his arsenal since that time; while he has slowly put away the curveball:
A young, former first-round pick, Lauer is still far from a finished product. Like all of the Padres talented prospects, his development is worth keeping a close eye on.
Bets (So Far) for August 8
- Miami Marlins (+175) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-104) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+100) Game Moneyline
- Toronto Blue Jays (+183) Game Moneyline
- Under 8.5 (-110), Atlanta at Miami
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 8/8
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.