Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 8/8: Should Bettors Trust MadBum as a Home Underdog?
May 7, 2019; Denver, CO, USA; San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Madison Bumgarner (40) walks off the mound at the end of the fifth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Thursday's slate of games, including how to bet Yankees-Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET) and Rockies-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
With a 52-65 expected record, the Blue Jays (47-70) have played slightly better than you would expect for a team with the fourth-fewest wins in MLB, thanks to an unlucky 11-19 record in one-run games.
Since the All-Star Break, the Blue Jays are 13-13 with a +21 run differential, and outside of a 17-38 run through May and June, they have played .500 baseball in 2019.
The Yankees (75-39) come into Thursday on an eight-game winning streak, despite suffering numerous injuries to the heart of their lineup in recent weeks. Gleyber Torres, DJ Lemahieu and Austin Romine are the only position players who have spent the entire 2019 season on the Yankees 25-man active roster, and Torres suffered a “core issue” (which may or may not be a sports hernia) on Wednesday.