Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 14: Time to Fade Kershaw vs. Marlins?
Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Orioles-Yankees (1:05 p.m. ET) and Cardinals-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I played the Twins in the first five innings on Tuesday specifically to avoid Josh Hader in the late innings — but it ultimately wouldn’t have mattered, as Hader surrendered his sixth run (and fourth home run) in six games:
After allowing 13 home runs combined between the 2017-2018 seasons, Hader has already matched that total in 2019.
In Chicago, Carlos Correa made a ridiculous play for the Astros — you’ll need to watch this one a few times in order to truly appreciate it:
In Detroit, Kyle Seager had a three home-run game with some assistance from the Tigers outfield:
We also had some umpire shenanigans in Philadelphia:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-4, and I finished down 0.40 units for the day; though I had a chance to go 6-2 as the Oakland Athletics had the based loaded in the top of the ninth — and a base hit would have put their team total over and given them a strong chance at victory.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained +73 cents against the sides that I played, netting as much as 43 cents against Arizona’s moneyline (+115 to -128). I gained an additional 10 cents against the one game total that I played.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, August 14
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).