Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Aug. 14: Time to Fade Kershaw vs. Marlins?


Credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports

Aug 14, 2019, 06:30 PM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes Wednesday's slate of games, including how to bet Orioles-Yankees (1:05 p.m. ET) and Cardinals-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

I played the Twins in the first five innings on Tuesday specifically to avoid Josh Hader in the late innings — but it ultimately wouldn’t have mattered, as Hader surrendered his sixth run (and fourth home run) in six games:

After allowing 13 home runs combined between the 2017-2018 seasons, Hader has already matched that total in 2019.

In Chicago, Carlos Correa made a ridiculous play for the Astros — you’ll need to watch this one a few times in order to truly appreciate it:

In Detroit, Kyle Seager had a three home-run game with some assistance from the Tigers outfield:

We also had some umpire shenanigans in Philadelphia:

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My plays went 3-4, and I finished down 0.40 units for the day; though I had a chance to go 6-2 as the Oakland Athletics had the based loaded in the top of the ninth — and a base hit would have put their team total over and given them a strong chance at victory.

It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained +73 cents against the sides that I played, netting as much as 43 cents against Arizona’s moneyline (+115 to -128). I gained an additional 10 cents against the one game total that I played.

MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, August 14

All odds as of Wednesday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Wednesday.

Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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