Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/15: Where’s the Edge in Brewers vs. Braves?
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Adrian Houser
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet Rays-Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET) and Braves-Brewers (8:10 pm. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Each of the 10 home teams on Monday will continue on homestands that began last Friday, while each of their opponents had to travel following their Sunday games.
The Rays and Yankees will square off for the 14th time this season, with a marquee pitching matchup between Blake Snell and James Paxton on tap.
New York has a 9-4 advantage in the seasons series, outscoring Tampa Bay 72-39.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-7 against full-game moneylines and 2-5-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 3-4, and I finished down 0.50 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I lost seven cents overall against sides, but also saw the under in St. Louis drop by a full run, from 8.5 to 7.5.
MLB Betting Model for Monday, July 15
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Blue Jays, Brewers, Giants (Game 1 of doubleheader), Phillies, Rays and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Blue Jays, Giants (Game 1), Phillies, Rays, and Tigers as F5 plays.
James Paxton has hit a bump in the road for the Yankees.
The lefty’s rolling strikeout and walk rates have each dipped below his career averages, and hi increasing FIP, xFIP, and price of hard contact allowed is a major cause for concern:
Paxton has hit a bump in the road, due in part to the decreased tunneling effectiveness of his fastball and cutter. However, he did strike out 11 Rays in his most recent outing before the All-Star Break.
Comparing Paxton to Blake Snell, I think Snell’s significant advantage in xFIP (3.14 vs. 3.92), xwOBA (.270 vs. .299) and hard hit % (30.7% vs. 38.6%) are most telling.
I like under 9.0 in this game, but I also like the Rays both on the F5 and full game moneylines and have them as roughly a 52% favorite in either half. Considering that they’ve blown multiple late leads to the Yankees already this season, I split a unit between the F5 and full-game moneylines for Tampa Bay.
Lastly, I like the Brewers at home today against the Braves. Josh Hader has not pitched since July 12, so I expect him to get into this game if the Brewers have a lead or keep the game close.
Adrian Houser will continue to pitch in the Brewers rotation during the second half. He throws a swing-and-miss four-seam fastball, a worm-burning sinker, a 12-6 curveball, a hard slider and an occasional changeup.
Hello, here's Adrian Houser dismantling Michael Brantley (who has an 8.8% strikeout rate, fourth lowest in baseball) with an insane two-seam fastball. pic.twitter.com/6Vm7hlPA8H
— Jack Stern (@baseball7310) June 13, 2019
Houser has also gotten sick on the major league mound — a real-life Willie Beamen.
With a 55% groundball rate and an array of average or better pitches, I’m expecting Houser to have success in the Brewers rotation during the second half.
Bets (So Far) for July 15
- Milwaukee Brewers (-105) Game Moneyline
- San Francisco Giants (+185) Game 1 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+133) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (+132) Game Moneyline
- Under 9 (-110), Tampa Bay at NY Yankees
- Under 10 (-120), Houston at LA Angels
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/15
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.