Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 7/7: Can Charlie Morton, Rays, Salvage Split with Yankees?
Kim Klement, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Charlie Morton
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Sunday's slate of games, including whether
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Today marks the official end of the “first half” of the 2019 Major League Baseball season.
Save for the NL Central – where all five teams are within 4.5 games of first place – each remaining division leader is more than six games ahead of their competition. You can make a playoff argument for the seven teams within seven games of the AL Wildcard, and a staggering 11 teams within 6.5 games of the NL Wildcard.
Six teams (Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Miami, Seattle, Toronto) are 12.5 games or more out of the playoff hunt – and other than the up-and-coming Blue Jays I’m not particularly eager to back any of those clubs for the remainder of 2019.
Few relief pitchers in baseball make me go “ooh” and “ahh” as much as Chaz Roe. His breaking stuff is so nasty that he often has difficulty controlling it, consequently causing his walk rate to spike this season.
But Roe had his stuff working on Saturday against the Yankees. Check out this wiffleball slider that he threw to Gary Sanchez:
Next, is the same pitch slowed down, with a clearer view at it causing Sanchez to pull a frontside 180:
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-3 against full-game moneylines, and 1-3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 4-2-1 (or 3-2-1 if you’d prefer, as I played the Diamondbacks moneyline twice at different prices) and I finished up 0.88 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 17 cents against the Rays F5 moneyline (-133 to -150) and 7 cents against the White Sox F5 moneyline (-105 to -112), but the Diamondbacks moneyline saw late movement and closed at -108 (from -113 and -120).
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, July 7
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five-innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Rays, Royals, and Tigers as full-game plays. It also likes the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Rays, and Royals as F5 plays.
Rookie Alex Young will make his second major league start for the Diamondbacks, after beating the Giants on June 27 and throwing 2.1 innings of scoreless relief on July 2 against the Dodgers.
The 25-year-old southpaw and former second-round pick out of TCU has average stuff that he can command for strikes – with a fastball sitting around 90-91 mph to go along with an average curveball and changeup.
That arsenal has played up in shorter stints, suggesting that a fireman-like role might be the optimal way to utilize Young:
For now, they’re going to see if he can work as a backend starting pitcher.
I’m uncertain if I’ll be backing Young and the Diamondbacks once again on Thursday, but I have locked in a bet on Uncle Charlie Morton and the Rays.
Hopefully, I have helped you to visualize Morton and his curveball dominance in many different ways this season.
Here is another, showing how his xFIP has declined as his curveball usage, and strikeout rate have both increased:
Morton is undoubtedly an unusual case, as athletes do not typically breakout at age-32. He ranks third in MLB in 2019 with a 2.86 FIP, and seventh with a 3.23 xFIP – ahead of Jacob deGrom by both metrics.
However, it’s not as though this breakout window has made Morton into a profit machine. He is 45-28 (61.6%, +$214, 2.9% RO) on the moneyline since the start of the 2017 season, without any discernible or notable splits.
Lastly, a whole bunch of under umpires will be in action on Sunday, including:
- Lance Barksdale, 55.6%, +34 units, Royals at Nationals
- Victor Carrapazza, 56.6%, +26.75 units, Yankees at Rays
- Mike Estabrook, 57%, +28 units, Angels at Astros
- Marty Foster, 54%, +20.6 units, Marlins at Braves
And that’s just a few. Doug Eddings and D.J. Reyburn also each have Sunday plate assignments, and historical leans to unders.
I played the under in Houston, due to the gap between my projected total (8.4) and the game total (10.0) – with Estabrook’s plate assignment sealing the deal.
Bets (So Far) for July 7
- Tampa Bay Rays (-115) Game Moneyline
- Under 10 (-105), Angels at Astros
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 7/7
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.