Tuesday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Two Strikeout Totals to Target in Royals vs. Tigers & Cardinals vs. Brewers (Tuesday, May 11)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Freddy Peralta
- The Tigers strikeout more than any team in baseball, so how should you bet Brady Singer against them?
- Freddy Peralta boasts an absurd strikeout rate, so how should you bet him against the Cardinals?
- Kevin Davis breaks it all down with his favorite player prop bets below.
With a full slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Today, there are two strikeout props that I like, both unders.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 23-24, -4.48 Units, -9.5% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Brady Singer Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|Royals vs. Tigers||Royals -135|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
The Detroit Tigers’ lineup is averaging 10.41 strikeouts per game, which is the most in the league. Last season, the Tigers averaged 9.78 strikeouts per game, which was the third most in the league. With Tigers hitters being so strikeout prone, how should you factor that in when deciding on their opposing pitcher’s strikeout total?
Brady Singer is having a solid start to the season, as he had a 3.41 ERA and a 4.12 xFIP and he’s averaging exactly one strikeout per inning. Thus, in order for him to reach seven strikeouts and the over to cash, he would need to last seven innings. I do not believe that the Royals will let Singer pitch deep enough for that to happen.
Singer is averaging fewer than five innings per start this season. In only one of his starts did go seven innings and that was his lone start in which he had more than 6.5 strikeouts. While that start was against the Tigers, it is unlikely that Singer replicates that performance.
Pick: Brady Singer Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-130). Would play up to -150 (BetMGM)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7
Freddy Peralta Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-136)
|Cardinals vs. Brewers||Brewers -138|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
Freddy Peralta is the prototypical Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher for this season: A power pitcher who doesn’t go deep in games. Peralta is averaging an absurd 14.91 strikeouts per nine innings this season. The question is: can he pitch enough innings to go over his strikeout total?
For the season, Peralta is averaging exactly five innings per start. In only two starts did Peralta pitch for more than five innings. That is the reason why Peralta has only had more than 8.5 strikeouts in one start this season.
On a typical night with Peralta’s current strikeout rate, Peralta would throw five innings and have 8.28 strikeouts. However, that is assuming Peralta continues having an absurdly high strikeout rate. While Peralta had a 14.42 per nine innings strikeout rate in 2020, the sample size is only 61 1/3 innings combined between the last two seasons.
Over the course of a long season, Peralta should have a strikeout rate of 12.30 according to FanGraphs’ ZIPS projections. With the ZIPS projected strikeout rate, Peralta would have to last 6 2/3 innings to go over his strikeout total. Even if the number were set at 7.5 as it is at several books, the under is still a good bet as he’d need to go six innings to hit that at his projected K rate. That’s just not something you can count on him doing.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-136). Would play up to -145 (FanDuel)
- Action Labs Score: 9 (Based on Under 7.5 +128)
- Kevin Davis Score: 6