MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Nationals’ Josiah Gray & Mariners’ Kyle Seager Headline Monday’s Top Plays (September 27)
Alika Jenner/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Seager
Welcome to the final week of the MLB season.
The Action Network MLB Player Props team is proud to say that we’ve hit close to 58% of our plays so far for an 8.7% return on investment. However, we’re looking to finish strong, and that starts with tonight’s slate.
It’s a very quiet Monday with only two night games. However, using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve targeted one strikeout total that oozes value.
Plus, I’ve found a position player prop that also provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
The Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
|Nationals vs. Rockies||Nationals (+148)|
|Time||8:40 p.m. ET|
Josiah Gray hasn’t yet developed into the top-tier prospect he’s expected to be, but he’s done one thing particularly well: miss bats.
Gray ranks above the 80th percentile in both whiff rate and chase rate, while ranking in the 99th percentile in strikeouts per innings (1.63), swinging strike rate (21.1%) and called strike plus whiff rate (36.5%).
As such, the rookie posted 12.64 K/9 in Triple-A this season and 9.86 K/9 in his 11 MLB starts. Although Gray averages fewer than five innings per start while posting an ERA close to six, he’s hit over 4.5 strikeouts in seven of his 11 outings this season (63%).
While the Rockies are rather disciplined, they’ve been slumping recently. Over the past month, the Rockies have posted MLB’s 11th-highest strikeout rate (24.6%), compared to MLB’s 19th-highest on the season (23.1%).
Moreover, the Rockies haven’t been unstoppable at Coors Field recently. Over the past 30 days and among home teams, the Rockies have posted the league’s 12th-highest strikeout rate (23%) while posting the lowest wRC+ (53).
So I like Gray’s chances today. And so does the Action Labs Player Props tool, which has Gray projected at a whopping 6.6 strikeouts today. That provides us tons of edge on the 4.5 number FanDuel is offering us at -130.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Kyle Seager Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
|Mariners vs. Athletics||Mariners (-115)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
The Mariners are hot. They’re pushing hard for one of the two wild-card spots and find themselves only two games back. Kyle Seager has a lot to do with that.
The Mariners have won six of their last seven games, during which Seager has compiled a 1.057 OPS and 18 total bases (2.57 per game). He is 11-for-29 during that stretch with five of those hits going for extra bases.
Tonight, Seager will take on Cole Irvin, with whom he’s had a positive relationship. Seager is 5-for-10 lifetime against Irvin with a double and a home run, plus his 99.7 mph average exit velocity has resulted in a .688 xSLG.
Although he’s a lefty, Seager hits just as well off southpaws as righties, and he loves hitting fastballs. Irvin throws a four-seamer almost half the time, and while Irvin has allowed a high exit velocity on the pitch, Seager has compiled a +16 run value and a .629 SLG vs. four-seamers this season.
After struggling with the fastball during August, Seager has bounced back and upped his September numbers during this recent string of games.
Tonight, I’m expecting Seager to give one of Irvin’s fastballs a ride. If he doesn’t accomplish that, Seager will have a chance to cash this prop against an Oakland bullpen that has posted the fifth-worst FIP this month (4.68).
Either way, getting over 1.5 bases at such big plus-money odds is a gift.