MLB Player Prop Bets: The Top Plays for Tylor Megill & Vladimir Gutierrez (July 5)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Gutierrez.
- With 11 games on today's MLB slate, there are a lot of strikeout props to choose from.
- Kevin Davis highlights his two favorite plays below — bets on the Mets' Tylor Megill and the Reds' Vladimir Gutierrez.
- Check out both picks complete with a full breakdown below.
With a large slate of 11 games, there are many props to choose from on Monday’s Major League Baseball card.
Unfortunately, the betting markets are more efficiently setting strikeout prop totals. Despite this, there are two strikeout props that I like — an over and an under.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop-bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 60-48, +3.31 Units, +3.1% ROI
MLB Player Props & Picks
Tylor Megill (NYM) — 6.5 Strikeouts (+116/-148)
|Brewers at Mets||Brewers -136|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Heading into the season, Tylor Megill was rated only as the 21st-best Mets prospect. However, he did well enough in the Double-A and Triple-A to start the season to merit a promotion to the majors. After only two MLB starts — both against the Atlanta Braves — little is known about what to expect from Megill.
He has a high strikeout rate, but a high walk rate should make it a struggle to pitch for many innings. Against a lackluster and strikeout-prone Brewers lineup, the question whether or not Megill can stay in the game long enough to rack up seven or more strikeouts.
In Megill’s first career start, he pitched for 4.1 innings and had four strikeouts. In his last start, Megill pitched for five innings and accumulated eight strikeouts.
Based on that small sample size, it’s hard to know what to expect, but with his current strikeout rate, he would have to pitch for almost 5.2 innings against a typical lineup to have seven or more strikeouts.
However, the Brewers are not a typical MLB lineup. While the typical team averages 8.75 strikeouts per game, the Brewers average 9.73, which is the third-highest mark in MLB. Based on his current strikeout rate, Megill would have to pitch for only five innings to go over his strikeout total.
While the over on Megill may seem tempting based on Milwaukee’s propensity for strikeouts, I have a hard time seeing how he can keep up his high strikeout rate and pitch for more than five innings. The juice is worth the squeeze on the under at -148, and I would bet it up to -170.
Pick: Tylor Megill Under 6.5 Strikeouts -148 (Play to -170)
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 6
Vladimir Gutierrez (CIN) — 3.5 Strikeouts (-115/-110)
|Reds at Royals||Royals (-125)|
|Time||8:10 p.m. ET|
Vladimir Gutierrez has been thrown into the fire by the Reds.
With no big-league experience, Gutierrez started the season in Triple-A. In 2019, Gutierrez pitched a complete season in Triple-A and had a low strikeout rate with a 6.04 ERA. This year in three Triple-A starts, Gutierrez averaged nearly six innings per start, had a high strikeout rate, and a 2.65 ERA.
As a result of Gutierrez’s minor league success and Cincinnati’s need for starting pitching, Gutierrez was called up to the majors. Since joining the Reds, Gutierrez has a 3-3 record with a 4.93 ERA, 5.55 xFIP, and a -0.1 WAR after seven starts.
More importantly for strikeout props, he has only 7.04 strikeouts per nine innings and is averaging almost 5.2 innings per start.
Unfortunately for Guttierez, the opposing Royals lineup has been one of the most disciplined at the plate. While the median MLB team averages 8.75 strikeouts per game, the Royals average 8.12 strikeouts per game, which is the third-best in the league. Kansas City has 7.2% fewer strikeouts per game than the average MLB lineup.
In a typical start, Gutierrez records 4.3 strikeouts which is .8 strikeouts more than his total. Even when you adjust his strikeout total for the Royals’ lineup, he should still have 4.01 strikeouts.
While Gutierrez is not helping the Reds win this year, he can be relied upon to pitch for many innings. Even against Kansas City, Gutierrez should go over his strikeout total in Monday night’s game.
Pick: Vladimir Gutierrez Over 3.5 Strikeouts -115 (Play to -135)
- Action Labs Score: 8
- Kevin Davis Score: 5
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