MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: How To Bet Wade Miley & Blake Snell Strikeout Totals (Tuesday, September 7)
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Blake Snell
- With a full slate of MLB games on Tuesday, we've got two player props worth targeting.
- Mike Ianniello breaks down why he's targeting strikeout totals for Wade Miley and Blake Snell.
- Ready below for Ianniello's full analysis and his picks.
Throughout this season, I’ll be evaluating my favorite MLB player props of a slate based on what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes — the tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets I’m playing for Tuesday, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Wade Miley Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
|Reds vs. Cubs||Reds (-160)|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
Wade Miley is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career this year. He is 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA, which would be the second-lowest mark in his career. Miley has allowed two runs or fewer in 18 of his 25 starts.
Miley has averaged 5.9 innings per start and has completed six frames in 15 starts this year. Throwing mostly a cutter and changeup, Miley isn’t exactly a high strikeout guy; he generates a 51.1% ground ball rate and has just a 6.9 K/9 rate.
He has averaged 4.5 strikeouts per start, so this number is right on his average, and he has gone over this total in 13 of his 25 starts. But this Cubs team presents a good opportunity for him to get on the right side of this total. Since the trade deadline, Chicago ranks 19th in wOBA, 22nd in wRC+ and has generated the highest strikeout rate in the league at 29.4%.
Miley has already faced the Cubs four times this season, pitching to a 2.74 ERA against them. In his most recent outing against Chicago on August 16 he struck out seven batters in seven shutout innings. I will back Miley against the Cubs again on Tuesday.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Blake Snell Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Padres vs. Angels||Padres (-350)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
It has been an inconsistent first season in San Diego for Blake Snell, who has pitched to a 7-5 record and 4.31 ERA. The form Cy Young award winner ranks in the bottom 20% of the league with 5.11 xERA and .341 xwOBA against.
Snell has settled in over the last month and pitched to a 1.72 ERA in his six starts in August, but three of those starts were against Arizona. Snell will forever be known for getting pulled too early in the World Series, but leaving Tampa Bay has not exactly allowed him to rack up innings. In 25 starts, Snell is averaging just 4.8 innings per start and has lasted at least six innings just six times all year.
The lack of length in games has kept Snell’s strikeout totals low this season. Despite a dominant slider and solid 11.83 K/9 rate, Snell is averaging just 6.4 strikeouts per start. He has only gone over this total in nine of his 25 starts. I’ll play Snell to stay under this number on Tuesday.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
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