MLB Player Props: Doubling Down in Kansas City
Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Felix Hernandez.
- There are just eight games tonight, but several props are offering value so we'll include three in today's article.
- Featured are strikeout over/unders for Homer Bailey, Felix Hernandez and Hyun-Jin Ryu.
Three props! That’s right, folks. I am giving you the gift of three prop picks tonight instead of the normal two. Will I always do this? No, but there happens to be a handful I liked today.
Included are two picks from the same game, also a player-props first. They didn’t vote me trendsetter in high school for nothing. Actually, they gave that to someone else …
MLB Player Props, Monday April 8
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 1:20 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Kansas City Royals SP Homer Bailey
The pick: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Homer Bailey came out wheeling and dealing in his first start in a Royals uni, punching out eight Twinkies in five innings of work. I’m betting he manages only half that number tonight vs. the Mariners.
Bailey failed to reach seven strikeouts per nine innings in each of the two seasons before this one and his one start vs. Minnesota isn’t going to do enough to convince me he’ll be any different this year. We’re talking about an injury-riddled fella well past his prime.
Bailey has one of the worst ratings in FantasyLabs Batted Ball Model and faces a Mariners lineup that hasn’t been striking out all that much this year. We’re projecting just 4.0 strikeouts for Bailey, but the implied odds here suggest he’s going to reach 5.0.
Seattle Mariners SP Felix Hernandez
The pick: Over 4 strikeouts (-108)
Speaking about pitchers past their prime, King Felix has had a mighty fall from grace. His ERA has steadily climbed from 2.14 in 2014 to 5.55 last year. His strikeouts are down, too, but are they down so much that he gets just three measly Ks vs. the Royals tonight? Not in my book.
We’re pegging him at 5.4 strikeouts, and I especially like the security of taking the over at 4 given the push possibility. I personally wouldn’t take this if it moved to 4.5.
Dodgers SP Hyun-Jin Ryu
The pick: Over 5 strikeouts (-130)
The Dodgers are out of the Colorado thin air and visiting the crime capital of the country — St. Louis — to take on Miles Mikolas and the Cards.
Like Bailey, Ryu is off to a hot start. He’s actually making his third start of the year tonight, having struck out 13 men in 13 innings so far.
Ryu takes on a Cardinals lineup that has struck out in nearly 27% of its at-bats, which is good for 8th highest in the league per Fangraphs.
The combination of the Cards’ whiffing ways plus Ryu’s ability to sit men down via the K PLUS Ryu’s solid all-around pitching that allows him to go deep into games has us projecting him for 7.4 strikeouts. At 5 (o-130), the implied odds are just 5.6 — nearly two full strikeouts less than our projection. As was the case with Hernandez, I particularly like taking this on 5 despite a fairly high juice because I find it unlikely he gets just four. However, I still believe taking over 5.5 is not a bad option if the juice stays below the -130 range.